PM Modi faces biggest electoral test as regional parties ignite fire in rural areas

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing the biggest electoral test of the year and it is starting with Punjab and the tiny southern state of Goa, followed by Uttar Pradesh. Modi led BJP has invested heavily in the campaign, holding a series of rallies in both Punjab and Uttar Pradesh in an attempt to ease concerns about his sudden cash clampdown that has hit rural voters the hardest.

A rookie regional party is proving to be a threat to PM Modi in the northwest state of Punjab as it is harnessing distress over rural debt and a deepening drug epidemic.

This might cost the regional Shiromani Akali Dal and Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party dearly. Both have been ruling the state in coalition for a decade.

If BJP looses in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, it will be a major setback as it will weaken its authority and cramp its ability to initiate tough reforms and push its legislative agenda in Parliament.

According to most of the polls, the ruling coalition will lose power in Punjab, with the outcome split between Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party, which until now counts only the urban state of Delhi as its power base.

Parties like the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party, which translates as 'common man', are polling strongly in the state.

"Among the five states, it is only in Punjab that the Congress has a chance to win. If it wins there it will help the party to revive to face the 2019 elections strongly. If AAP wins, it will expand more aggressively," he said. "If it fails there, it will crash Kejriwal's ambition to emerge as a national leader to check Modi," Pramod Kumar, director of the Chandigarh-based Institute for Development and Communication, told ET.