Photos reportedly show Russian jets wrecked by mortar fire - and it could be the start of Russia's nightmare in Syria

Joseph Dempsey via Twitter

Images purport to show damage to a Russian jet in Syria.

• Russian media reported that "radical islamists" had destroyed seven aircraft.
• The destruction reportedly came from a mortar attack.
• Russia has confirmed the attack and the deaths of two service members, but denied that aircraft were lost.

Russian media reported on Wednesday that "radical islamists" had destroyed six fighter aircraft and one transport plane with a mortar attack. Ten Russian service members were reportedly wounded in the attack.

The initial report cited defense sources, but not Russia's Ministry of Defense itself.

A day later, another Russian media outlet rolled out a denial from the MoD, saying two servicemen had been killed, but no planes destroyed.

However, unverified images circulating on social media seem to fit the bill of destroyed Russian aircraft at Syria's Hmeymim Air Base.

Joseph Dempsey, a research associate for defence analysis at the International Institute of Strategic Studies posted the images and pointed out that the plane pictured had been confirmed to be in Syria, and that the rainy weather captured in the photo matched the weather at the reported time of the attack.

Dempsey's pictures show the rear horizontal stabilizer of a Su-24 shredded, presumably by a mortar attack. But for a mortar to do such serious damage to the stabilizer, it would have had to exploded nearby and likely peppered the entire plane and anything around it with bits of shrapnel.

If the images are genuine, it's safe to assume other nearby jets or assets suffered damage too.

In short, the damage looks limited, but the plane is probably wrecked. One picture shows a fuel leak and a bomb underneath the jet. Taken all together, the images depict a disaster or near-disaster at the air base where Russia bases the majority of its fleet in Syria.

This spells trouble for Russia

Whether or not the images are real - or if seven or one or zero planes were destroyed - Russia confirmed the attack and its casualties.

Google Earth satellite imagery of Hmeynim air base shows that the mortar attackers had ample space and cover from which to launch on Russia's sitting duck Sukhoi jets.

Google Earth / Business Insider

Fields just outside the air base would make an ideal hiding spot to attack from.

It appears likely Russia fell victim to a guerilla attack or insurgency, the same kind that has kept the US' superior military and air power from completing its missions in the Middle East for decades.

Charles Lister, the director of counterterrorism at the Middle East Institute, tweeted two theories as to who could have attacked the base.

Lister theorized that either a "[l]ocalized, very small independent rebel unit active behind enemy lines
or Ahrar al-Sham's 'special' unit operating covertly in Latakia (has a long track record)."

Ahrar al-Sham is a coalition of Islamist fighters that came together to fight against Syria's government, which Russia supports. An independent rebel unit behind enemy lines could prove just as troubling and hard to root out for Russia.