The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has dismissed the impact electric cars will have on the automobile market.
In its latest World Oil Outlook the oil cartel outlined its forecasts for key oil-using industrial sectors through 2040. While the share of traditional petrol/gasoline-fuelled cars is expected to fall, OPEC predicts that it will still account for 91% of all vehicles, down from 97% in 2013.
Don't tell that to Elon Musk, founder of the electric-car producer Tesla. The company reported a modest $3 million third-quarter profit on Wednesday, enough to drive up its share price. Tesla reported that its major problem at the moment was being able to produce sufficient numbers of electric cars at the pace required to meet surging demand.
But OPEC remains undaunted by market exuberance over its prospects, writing (emphasis added):
Pure plug-in electric cares are unlikely to gain a significant market share in the foreseeable future. Apart from a high purchase price there are issues of convenience, such as range limitations and battery performance during hot and cold weather conditions (when higher output would be needed for cooling or heating the car). Vehicle electrification will likely be mostly confined to various degrees of hybridisation, including plug-ins.
Here's OPEC's chart:
Of course, OPEC has a strong motivation for downplaying the possible impact that electric cars could have on a key part of its market. Especially because even on OPEC's forecasts, oil is expected to play an ever smaller role in global energy markets. Nevertheless, its warning might check some of the enthusiasm over a sector that still has a long way to go to compete with traditional carmakers. Recent declines in the price of oil suggest we are moving into a period of significantly cheaper oil, s0 that job just became a lot harder.
