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Using Nate Silver's "2015 NFL Predictions," a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.
Heading into Week 6, the New England Patriots are still the favorite and their chances are growing, up from 19% a week ago, to 23% this week, a nearly 1-in-4 shot to win the Super Bowl. The Green Bay Packers (17%) and Denver Broncos (13%) are still lurking as the only teams above 8%.
The Patriots and Packers are the first teams to eclipse a 95% chance of making the postseason, at 97% and 96%, respectively, making them virtual locks for the playoffs after just five weeks. The Broncos are on the cusp at 94%.
Here are the eight teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl after five weeks:
- New England Patriots, 23%
- Green Bay Packers, 17%
- Denver Broncos, 13%
- Cincinnati Bengals, 8%
- Arizona Cardinals, 6%
- Seattle Seahawks, 6%
- Carolina Panthers, 6%
- Atlanta Falcons, 5%
The Pittsburgh Steelers (3%) are the only other team given more than a 2% chance of winning it all.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are still just three teams without a legit shot to make the playoffs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4%), Detroit Lions (4%), and Cleveland Browns (4%) all have less than a 5% chance to make the playoffs. The Miami Dolphins (5%) and Oakland Raiders (5%) are not far behind.
Here are the 8 teams with the best chance to win each division:
- AFC East - New England Patriots, 84% chance to win their division
- AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals, 73%
- AFC South - Indianapolis Colts, 73%
- AFC West - Denver Broncos, 89%
- NFC East - New York Giants, 42%
- NFC North - Green Bay Packers, 90%
- NFC South - Atlanta Falcons, 59%
- NFC West - Arizona Cardinals, 52%
You can see the full projections at Five Thirty Eight.