Only 6 teams have a legit shot to win the Super Bowl
Using ESPN's Football Power Index, a model that predicts each team's offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, and then projects how the regular season will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.
Heading into Week 1, the Green Bay Packers are the favorite with a 16.2% chance to win the Super Bowl. They also have an 81.0% to make the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts are the favorite in the AFC with a 13.7% chance to win the Super Bowl.
In all, there are six teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl before any games are even played:
- Green Bay Packers, 16.2%
- Seattle Seahawks, 14.1%
- Indianapolis Colts, 13.7%
- New England Patriots, 11.7%
- Denver Broncos, 9.8%
- Dallas Cowboys, 5.3%
The Philadelphia Eagles (4.3%) just missed the cut and were the only other team given more than a 3.0% chance of winning it all.
At the other end of the spectrum, only six teams have less than a 10% chance of even making the playoffs, with the Jacksonville Jaguars (4.2%) and Oakland Raiders (3.4%) as the only two teams below 5%.
Here are the 8 teams with the best chance to win each division:
- AFC East - New England Patriots, 55.4%
- AFC North - Baltimore Ravens, 39.9%
- AFC South - Indianapolis Colts, 73.4%
- AFC West - Denver Broncos, 59.0%
- NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles, 40.5% (the Dallas Cowboys are at 39.7%)
- NFC North - Green Bay Packers, 68.4%
- NFC South - New Orleans Saints, 37.7%
- NFC West - Seattle Seahawks, 62.7%
You can see the full FPI rankings at ESPN.com.