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Only 5 teams still have a legit shot to win the NCAA Tournament

Mar 23, 2015, 19:40 IST

After four gut-wrenching days of the NCAA Tournament there are now just 16 teams still alive. But the number of teams with a legit chance to win it all is much less according to the updated model by Nate Silver.

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Kentucky is still the overwhelming favorite with Silver giving the Wildcats a 41% chance to finish the season undefeated, the same probability they had prior to the start of the tournament.

Arizona now has the second-best chance of becoming champs with a 14% chance followed by Duke at 12%.

In all, just five teams have at least a 5% chance of winning it all according to the model:

  1. Kentucky (No. 1 seed, Midwest) - 41% chance to win the tournament
  2. Arizona (No. 2 seed, West) - 14% chance
  3. Duke (No. 1 seed, South) - 12% chance
  4. Wisconsin (No. 1 seed, West) - 8% chance
  5. Gonzaga (No. 2 seed, South) - 6% chance

No team still alive in the East has more than a 4% chance of winning the tournament. Michigan State is the favorite to reach the Final Four out of that region with a 33% chance of winning their next two games.

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West Virginia, North Carolina, Xavier, UCLA, and North Carolina State are the longest shots to win it all, with each of those teams given a 1% (or less) chance to be the one team still standing at the end.

NOW WATCH: Nate Silver has the perfect formula for winning your March Madness bracket

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