Only 5 teams still have a legit shot to win the NCAA Tournament
Kentucky is still the overwhelming favorite with Silver giving the Wildcats a 41% chance to finish the season undefeated, the same probability they had prior to the start of the tournament.
Arizona now has the second-best chance of becoming champs with a 14% chance followed by Duke at 12%.
In all, just five teams have at least a 5% chance of winning it all according to the model:
- Kentucky (No. 1 seed, Midwest) - 41% chance to win the tournament
- Arizona (No. 2 seed, West) - 14% chance
- Duke (No. 1 seed, South) - 12% chance
- Wisconsin (No. 1 seed, West) - 8% chance
- Gonzaga (No. 2 seed, South) - 6% chance
No team still alive in the East has more than a 4% chance of winning the tournament. Michigan State is the favorite to reach the Final Four out of that region with a 33% chance of winning their next two games.
West Virginia, North Carolina, Xavier, UCLA, and North Carolina State are the longest shots to win it all, with each of those teams given a 1% (or less) chance to be the one team still standing at the end.