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Gurley is known for having a pretty pessimistic outlook on the tech industry, despite big investments in Snapchat and Uber. The entire US stock market had a bad day on Thursday. And in a tweetstorm last night, Gurley pointed out that some of the biggest names in tech are falling from all-time highs too.
1/ Tech stocks have been getting crushed the past 6 weeks. Many names are down 25-50% from their highs. Today was very tough.
- Bill Gurley (@bgurley) August 21, 2015
2/ The China stocks are also under pressure. The BATs (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) are down on average 34% off their highs.
- Bill Gurley (@bgurley) August 21, 2015
Gurley went on to say that Silicon Valley's optimism could lead to the death of so-called "unicorn" companies - startups that reach a $1 billion valuation before their IPO. Those companies could face a turn in the market in the near future. "I do think you'll see some dead unicorns this year," Gurley said.
Gurley's bottom line? Tumbling tech stocks could call some inflated valuations into question.
During the recent boom, tech company founders have been encouraged to prioritize growth over profits and sustainability. That's been fine so far because interest rates have stayed low, and tech stocks and valuations have been at an all-time high. But Gurley believes a turn in the market is happening right now, meaning that investors will want to see a more viable, self-sustaining business model before they decide to back a company.
That's something Gurley believes some firms just aren't ready for.
3/ The bottom line is that global tech valuation multiples are compressing (coming in). Quickly.
- Bill Gurley (@bgurley) August 21, 2015
4/ One might reasonably assume that this would have an adverse impact on late stage private market liquidity and valuation. I certainly do.
- Bill Gurley (@bgurley) August 21, 2015
5/ If so, we may be nearing the end of a cycle where growth is valued more than profitability. It could be at an inflection point.
- Bill Gurley (@bgurley) August 21, 2015
6/ Investors are likely to refocus on business model viability and path to profitability. This will seem like an abrupt sea-change to many.
- Bill Gurley (@bgurley) August 21, 2015
7/ Which Unicorn entrepreneurs/CEOs are prepared for such a shift? Who can adjust quickly?
- Bill Gurley (@bgurley) August 21, 2015
8/ Can you get to profitability on your last round? Have you even considered such a reality?
- Bill Gurley (@bgurley) August 21, 2015