One of Republicans' strongest candidates is completely imploding
It's evident enough that a lot of political observers and even some of his donors are starting to notice he's sounding a lot like the man he's trying to catch at the top of Republican presidential primary polls - Donald Trump.
"Some of the things that he and other candidates are doing to try to associate themselves with positions being taken by Trump or other more 'exciting' candidates are hurting them, though," said veteran Republican strategist Liz Mair, who briefly worked for Walker's campaign. "Why vote for the guy perceived as the copycat or watered-down version of something as opposed to the real deal?"
And according to poll after poll lately, Walker is looking like a watered-down version of his former self - a Republican candidate thought to be among the three most likely challengers to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. Walker has seen his national poll numbers tumble, as Trump's - other candidates attracting similar types of voters, like retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson - have continued to rise.
A new Public Policy Polling poll released on Tuesday showed Walker with 5% support nationwide. That's a massive drop from the second-place slot Walker nabbed when 17% of Republicans nationwide said that they supported him in last month's PPP poll.
A Monmouth University poll released on Thursday showed Walker plummeting to an eye-popping 3%, down 8% from the previous month.
But perhaps the most ominous batch of poll numbers came on Saturday, when a poll found the governor's support cratering in a state that has long been seen as a linchpin to his White House path: Iowa.
In a May Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register poll, Walker led the field with 17% of the Republican vote. The same poll taken in August found that his support has been cut in half, with only 8% of likely Republican caucus-goers saying that they still support the governor.
That puts him in a distant third to Trump and Carson, who lead the field in the state with 23% and 18%, respectively. It's a far cry from the months of February through mid-July, when he led every public poll of Iowa except one.
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If there's a bright side for Walker, it's that the numbers still give him hope of turning things around. As his supporters and some pollsters will tell you, Walker isn't getting noticeably less popular. He's just not garnering the kind of excitement of anti-establishment Republican rivals like Trump and Carson.
His image remains popular. In Iowa, 71% of Republican voters view Walker favorably - a number that has actually gone up 5% since May, when the last Bloomberg Politics/DMR poll was conducted.
He's also many voters' second choice. In the PPP national poll, Walker clocked in at 10% when voters asked who would be their second choice for a nominee, trailing only Carson and Trump.
"That increase in visibility has translated into more favorable and unfavorable feelings. Only Ben Carson has a higher favorability score," J Ann Selzer, who conducted the Bloomberg Politics/DMR poll, said in an email. "So, it's easy to conclude that Walker is not turning voters off as much as they are turned on to other candidates."
For its part, Walker's campaign has sought to downplay the results of the early polls. A campaign spokesperson told Business Insider in a phone conversation on Thursday that the campaign is playing the long game, steadily laying the groundwork for a grassroots campaign and working behind the scenes to garner endorsements.
"We're doing what we need to do on the ground, and we're doing what we need to do to get Republicans engaged and motivated," the Walker spokesperson told Business Insider. "That is work that you don't always seen in the news but certainly pays dividends in the end."
The spokesperson also said the campaign is looking to exploit some facts reflected in the polls - that many Republicans still don't know Walker and haven't settled on a candidate yet. Thursday's Monmouth poll, for example, found that 42% of Republicans nationwide had no opinion of Walker, theoretically giving him room to grow as the campaign wears on.
"Governor Walker is very high among Republicans nationally and in the early states, and we see that as an opportunity to introduce him," the spokesperson said.
But Walker has been unable - at least yet - to capture the undivided anti-establishment enthusiasm of Tea Party voters who identify as very conservative.
The latest PPP poll suggests that Walker voters are also very interested in Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. And he continues to lose ground to Trump and Carson.
"Trump has completely passed him by with those groups. Those folks still like him - they're just for the time being more excited about Trump and increasingly Carson as well," PPP pollster Tom Jensen said in an email.
Some strategists say that Walker could be helped by the fact that Trump's supporters appear to be as unpredictable as the candidate they support, and won't show up when it's actually time to vote. But pollsters note that Trump's support is higher among people who don't usually don't caucus, but that this could work in Trump's favor.
"Trump's support is stronger among people who don't have a record of caucusing than people who do," Jensen said. "That might mean those people won't turn out - but it also might mean he's just bringing new people into the process. Doing that was certainly a key to Obama doing so well there in 2008."
At the moment, some observers have noted that Republicans' best strategy against Trump is to hope that he somehow implodes when conservative voters realize that he is espousing positions that don't toe the party line.
That may be Walker's best bet, too.
"The good news for him is that if Trump and Carson eventually stumble as these non-traditional candidates usually do, he still has the popularity to get back some of the supporters he's lost over the last few months," Jensen said.
"Of course, nothing about this campaign so far has been 'usual.'"