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- President Donald Trump just initiated a new trade war with some of America's closest allies, including the European Union.
- S&P Global Market Intelligence has analyzed which industries are most vulnerable to a retaliatory tariff from Europe, and it could mean bad news for wealthy consumers.
Now that President Donald Trump has kicked off a new trade war with America's closest allies, companies and consumers are left with one glaring question: What happens when they retaliate?
S&P Global Market Intelligence has some ideas specifically pertaining to Europe. It's analyzed the products that are reportedly being targeted for a European counterstrike - and it doesn't paint a pretty picture for makers and consumers of luxury goods.
The firm's findings refer specifically to the duties being considered for application starting March 2021, which are represented by blue dots in the chart below. Each data point shows the dollar value of US exports to the European Union for each industry over the past year.
As you can see, the biggest outliers - and thereby the areas most at risk - include jewelry, automotive glass, specialty electricals, and personal care.
You know, the type of stuff rich people buy.
Jewelry imports from the US totaled $1.46 billion in the 12 months through March 31, according to data compiled by Panjiva, which S&P acquired this year. In addition, automotive glass imports were worth $686 million, specialist electricals saw $506 million of activity, and personal care product imports amounted to $470 million, the data show.
Pressure on these areas is sure to negatively affect the profitability of the US manufacturers of these goods, unless they're able to offset the tariff headwind with cost cuts. And beyond that, consumers may also find themselves out in the cold.
This will be particularly true in Europe, the end market for these imported goods, where they'll likely be sold at higher prices to compensate for tariffs. But it could also hurt shoppers in the US if those assumed price hikes are applied globally.
With all of this established, the question then becomes: Will higher costs really dissuade the wealthy from continuing to purchase luxury goods? Only time will tell.