One corner of the market stayed red-hot during the last recession. Here's why investors will have to find a new place to hide during the next collapse.

Reuters / Arnd Wiegmann

• One specific industry stood out as a beacon of strength during the massive economic recession that crushed worldwide growth a decade ago.
• A new study from Bernstein explains why the sector will fail to see a repeat performance when the next economic meltdown strikes.
• Banks across Wall Street have offered a wide range of recommendations for how to play a recession. They're laid out below.

When the economy is in utter disarray, consumer spending is drying up, and lending conditions are tightening, people still have to eat.

It's for that simple reason that the catering industry is viewed as particularly defensive and capable of hanging in there during tough times.

If you're not sold, consider a situation where a big corporation would normally foot the bill for a big restaurant outing. Once purse strings get tighter, those companies are far more likely to get catering delivered to the office. That line of thinking ultimately gives the industry a big boost.

And the numbers bear this out, at least when it comes to the recession that rocked the global economy roughly a decade ago.

UK-based Compass Group reported 36% earnings-per-share growth in 2009, while French catering giant Sodexo saw expansion of 6%. Both outpaced the average consumer stock by a large margin, according to data compiled by Bernstein.

That translated to outsized stock-market performance, as both stocks surged 50% relative to the broader market during the period from August 2009 to June 2010.

Read more: Here's why the next recession could be unlike any the US has ever seen

With all of that established, you might be thinking that the most prudent option for defending against the next recession would be to rotate into the same catering names that smashed the market during the last downturn.

But Bernstein says not so fast.

"We have reason to doubt this performance is repeatable in another recession," senior analyst Richard J. Clarke wrote in a recent client note. "We would therefore expect the sector to disappoint to the downside if a recession hit."

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The firm finds that the following four developments will stop a repeat performance in its tracks. All bullets are direct quotes from Bernstein.

1. There has been a shift in where revenue growth has come from: now more focused on cyclical B&I (business & industry) growth
2. The industry is more consolidated, competitive and open to disruption
3. The companies are more lean, meaning less ability to take cost out in the next downturn
4. Expectations are much higher, with the stocks are the highest relative multiples for over 5 years. Into 2009, the stocks had heavily derated into the 2009 reporting and then impressed to the positive.

The first point laid out by Bernstein is perhaps the most damning, because it challenges catering's very nature as a defensive entity.

With sales expansion spreading into more cyclical areas, the industry is no longer the safe haven it once was. When you combine that with the fourth point laid out above - that stocks are already being overly pumped up by strong profit-growth forecasts - you have a situation ready-made for sharp, sudden losses.

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So what's an investor to do? Banks across Wall Street have some ideas.

In January, Goldman Sachs put together a list of 17 stocks set to continue growing their margins in 2019, regardless of what the economy does. The idea there is that they'll be well-equipped to outperform in the event of a full-fledged recession.

Morgan Stanley has weighed in as well, albeit with a contrarian view. The firm said in recent research that investors would be best served to rotate into cyclical areas. While Morgan Stanley isn't totally sold on the fundamental picture for these companies, it notes that defensive positions have gotten overextended to the upside, and are therefore likely to reverse.

Ultimately, everyone is just scrambling to make sure they're covered in the event of an economic downturn.

Whether that means looking beyond catering stocks or seeking out high-margin-growth companies, one thing is certain: the market is on notice, and the next big development is anyone's guess.