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NFL PLAYOFFS: Our 12 best bets for this weekend's NFL action
NFL PLAYOFFS: Our 12 best bets for this weekend's NFL action
Tyler LaulettaJan 19, 2019, 22:09 IST
AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo
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Every week of the NFL postseason we're writing up our favorite bets against the spread and player propositions.
This weekend, we're backing the Chiefs, and the Saints to win at home and set up a meeting between the two teams in Super Bowl LIII.
We're also betting Patrick Mahomes has a big day on the field, while scoring in both games stays relatively low.
Just four teams remain in the race to lift the Lombardi Trophy at the end of Super Bowl LIII.
With only three games left to be played before a champion is crowned, we're sneaking in a few final bets while we still can, picking every game against the spread as well as putting a little money down on our favorite prop bets of the weekend.
Last week we came out a little more than $200 ahead thanks to a hot streak of prop bets hitting, so we'll see if we can keep the good vibes rolling and increase our bankroll further as we head towards the Super Bowl.
Take a look below at our best bets for the coming weekend in NFL action.
Drew Brees and the Saints are a wrecking crew at home.
The first time these teams met this season, the Saints jumped out to a 35-14 lead in the first half. While the Rams were able to come back and make that game competitive, it was a fine bit of evidence of just how quickly the Saints can put points on the board.
After a fairly slow offensive performance against the Eagles last weekend, it feels like this Sunday they'll be eager to jump out to a lead early and never let it go.
The Rams are an extremely live dog in this game — every team is a potential winner at this point in the postseason — but for gambling, you have to pick a side eventually.
Bet $230 to win $200
Under 57
Two of the highest-scoring teams all season, betting the total on this game is an intimidating proposition.
These teams combined for 80 points last time they met, so many might think that reaching 57 should be no problem at all for the Saints and Rams. That said, 57 points is a lot for an NFL playoff game — through eight games, just one matchup has gone over that number so far in the 2019 postseason.
Maybe Sean McVay and the Rams rely on a run-heavy game plan. Maybe the Saints go on another clock-eating 11-minute drive in the second half to keep scoring down. The total is just too high for me to take the over right now.
Bet $110 to win $100
Saints (-0.5) first quarter line
Again, the Saints got off to a miserable start last week against the Eagles, trailing 14-0 after the first quarter despite receiving the game's opening kickoff.
While the Saints were able to come back and win that one, I think this week they'll have a bit of extra emphasis on starting strong and not letting the game get away from them.
Bet $105 to win $100
Rams over 2 sacks
Aaron Donald alone had 18 sacks this season for the Rams, so if the rest of the Los Angeles defense can manage at least one sack in this game, this bet should be good for a push at least.
Drew Brees should be dropping back enough for this bet to hit as long as the Rams are getting pressure.
Bet $57.50 to win $50
Over 6.5 total punts
This feels low!
I know punting has become something of a rarity for some teams, with more and more teams electing to go for it on fourth-and-short, and the Saints scoring on nearly every drive they start.
But the total here is only 6.5! I've seen games where there are two punts within two minutes of each other!
Take the over and hope there are a few early stops, so you don't have to sweat this one.
Bet $65 to win $50
Neither team will miss a field goal or extra point
I don't see either of these teams settling for a field goal unless it's to win the game, so *knocks on wood* we're betting that both kickers will be perfect for the Saints and Rams on Sunday.
If things go well, the game could end without a risky kick ever being attempted, and this is an easy winner.
Bet $50 to win $60
Kansas City Chiefs* (-3) over New England Patriots
The Patriots won in Foxboro last week after many in the football world backed the Chargers to pull off the upset.
Now, Julian Edelman is selling shirts trying to make people believe the Patriots are some sort of scrappy upstart team, rather than competing in their eighth-straight AFC title game.
I am backing the Chiefs because I don't want to live in a world where we have to suffer through yet another Patriots trip to the Super Bowl.
Bet $240 to win $200
Under 56
It's looking like Sunday will be a pretty cold day in Kansas City for the Chiefs and Patriots, and while cold weather doesn't necessarily kill all scoring, it does make things a bit more difficult for offenses to move up and down the field.
Additionally, both of these defenses have improved a good amount since the first time these two teams met. It might seem easy to back the Patriots and the over after their impressive offensive showing against the Chargers, but again, this is a lot of points for an NFL playoff game.
Bet $110 to win $100
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to score first touchdown
The Patriots decided to accept the opening kickoff last week in a shocking move from head coach Bill Belichick, but he's unlikely to pull the same move twice in a row.
If the Chiefs can get the ball to start the game, they'll be looking to take advantage of the hyped crowd and get things started right away. It's not tough to imagine Kelce or Hill streaking free for a quick touchdown to open the game, and right now the odds are pretty good.
Bet $20 each to win $150
Sammy Watkins Over 4.5 receptions
While I like Hill and Kelce as options to score the opening touchdown of the game, I also expect the Patriots defensive game plan to focus on attempting to stop them, leaving Sammy Watkins open as a second or third option on more plays than usual.
Bet $65 to win $50
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 completions -130
Mahomes is the star of the show, and if the Chiefs are going to win this game, it will be because he's had one of the best games of his already impressive young career.
I'm already betting the Chiefs, so I'm doubling down on Mahomes to clear his completions mark.
Bet $65 to win $50
Patrick Mahomes will not throw an interception +120
Mahomes threw two interceptions the first time these two teams met, but has been pretty close to perfect since the Chiefs bye week in Week 12 of the regular season, throwing just two picks in six starts.
If we've learned one thing this season, it's that Mahomes believes he can make any throw on the field, and he's usually right about it. Getting positive odds to trust he can do it again feels like a solid value.
