NFL betting guide - Our best bets for Week 4 of the Westgate SuperContest

SuperContest Pick 1: Indianapolis Colts (-1) over Houston Texans

There's one big trend that goes against this bet — Tom Fornelli at CBS Sports points out, 0-3 teams are 16-9 ATS as dogs in Week 4 since 2010, and a whopping 11-4 when they're on the road as well.

This might be a rookie move, but I'm backing the Colts to buck that trend, mostly because this line feels off. The Colts just pushed the reigning Super Bowl champions to the brink on the road, and Andrew Luck is still looking for his first home win since returning to the Colts from his extended injury. The Texans have shown nothing, and other than a desperation to avoid an 0-4 start, I don't see why they should be expected to keep this one close.

I was sure the Colts would be at least a 3-point favorite in this spot, and when it was put at essentially a pick'em, the deal felt too good to pass up. Next week we may be licking out wounds on this one as we remind ourselves that we're not smarter than the trends, but until then, I feel confident on this one.

SuperContest Pick 2: Cincinnati Bengals (+5) over Atlanta Falcons

The Bengals might not be the first team you think of when asked to name an NFL offensive powerhouse, but through three games they've averaged almost 30 points per outing, and this week will face off against a Falcons defense that has been absolutely battered by injury.

The Falcons are a solid team, but after the overtime slugfest against the Saints last weekend, I don't think they're in a position to be laying points, let alone almost a touchdown.

SuperContest Pick 3: Green Bay Packers (-9.5) over Buffalo Bills

It's never fun to lay such a big line, but after the Bills shocked the world with their performance in Minnesota last weekend, this feels like the perfect spot to fade them. The Vikings were set as 16.5-point favorites over the Bills heading into that game — is Minnesota really seven points better than Green Bay?

Even as high as this line is, it feels like an overcorrection based on both teams' Week 3 performances. Aaron Rodgers may still not be as mobile as he usually is, but he can still make throws, and the Packers will be looking to roll in front of the Lambeau faithful.

It's a scary line until the Packers score on their first drive. Then everything will feel much, much easier.

SuperContest Pick 4: Chicago Bears (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I've been enjoying the ride of the FitzMagic train, and honestly hope it continues. That being said, facing off against the Bears defense, it's easy to imagine Ryan Fitzpatrick's hot streak hitting a bit of a bump, and leading to a clearer quarterback controversy now that Jameis Winston is back in the fold for the Buccaneers.

On the Chicago side of the ball. Mitch Trubisky still has a lot to prove, but all of the weapons around him should be enough to cover the number, if he can make the throws he needs to make and not turn the ball over. Between an even-keeled offense and Khalil Mack forcing a critical turnover to give the Bears a short field, I think Chicago finds a way to cover.

SuperContest Pick 5: New York Giants (+3.5) over New Orleans Saints

The Giants are the home dog and the Saints are playing their first outdoor game of the year. The weather isn't supposed to be a huge factor in this one, but that's still enough to make me suspicious of the short road favorite.

Most importantly, the Giants seemed to finally put the pieces together a bit last weekend against the Texans, looking like a formidable offense when the blocking came through for Eli Manning. If the offensive line can hold up, the Giants defense should be solid enough to at least contain Drew Brees.

LAST WEEK: 4-1
OVERALL: 8-7

Eliminator Lock: Los Angeles Chargers

Teams used: Saints, Rams, Vikings

Well, like everyone else in America, I took the Vikings last week as my Eliminator lock, and was roundly embarrassed by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. But even if I'm out of my Eliminator pool, the show (this article) must go on, so this week we're backing the Chargers as they face off against C.J. Beathard in an effort to right the ship.

Money Dog: Baltimore Ravens (+140)

Looking for a live dog this week, the Baltimore Ravens stand out as a potential team worth betting on the moneyline. While the Steelers looked somewhat more put together last weekend, the handled the Denver Broncos soundly, and have looked like a far better team over three games that Pittsburgh has.

If the Steelers win over the Buccaneers last week wasn't totally convincing to you, the Ravens might be a good bet to put them back in their place in the basement of the AFC North.

Weekly Tease: Jaguars (-1.5) and Patriots (-0.5)

Our weekly tease was a winner last Sunday thanks to the Eagles and Rams both coming through for us with solid wins. This week, we're doing a similar six-point teaser, bringing the Jaguars and Patriots down so all they have to do is essentially win outright.

The Jaguars secondary should have a field day with rookie quarterback Sam Darnold, and it's just impossible to imagine the Patriots losing three straight times. Easy money.

Monday Night Chaser: Chiefs @ Broncos Under 55

The Chiefs are on a wild streak of scoring, but a road trip to Mile High in primetime feels like the perfect recipe to slow the Mahomes train just a bit. With the public likely slamming the over as the game continues to approach, wait to bet the Under on this one until just before kickoff, as the total may continue to rise.

Now check out our best bets of the college football slate

Our 7 best bets for Week 5 of the college football season