NATE SILVER'S FINAL FOUR: Gonzaga, Louisville, Indiana, And Florida

Nate Silver of the New York Times published his annual NCAA Tournament forecast this morning.

The main points:

• Gonzaga, Louisville, Indiana, and Florida (a 3-seed) have the best odds to make the Final Four.
• Louisville has the best odds to win it all at 22.7%. But they are in the hardest bracket.
• Only seven teams — Louisville, Gonzaga, Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Ohio State, Duke — have more than a 2.5% chance to win it all.

Florida is the only real surprise. The Gators have been a bit inconsistent this year and they're in the same bracket as Kansas, Georgetown, and Michigan.

It's also mildly surprising that Gonzaga — who no one seems to like — is the statistical favorite in its bracket.

Check out the entire breakdown over at FiveThirtyEight >