Nate Silver's College Football Playoff prediction is out, and his model has a big upset
According to the model, which simulates the three games thousands of times, No. 4 Oklahoma has the best chance to win the championship, with a 41% to win the second College Football Playoff. The most common result has Oklahoma beating No. 2 Alabama in the final.
Here are the chances for each team to win the championship:
- Oklahoma, 41%
- Alabama, 34%
- Clemson, 15%
- Michigan State, 10%
Interestingly, Silver's model makes Oklahoma a heavy favorite over top-seeded Clemson, giving Oklahoma a 66% chance to win their semifinal matchup. Meanwhile, Alabama has a 68% chance to beat No. 3 seed Michigan State.
While most were in agreement of the four teams chosen for the playoff, there has been some argument that either No. 5 Iowa, whose only loss was a last-minute loss to No. 3 Michigan State, or No. 6 Stanford, who won the Pac-12 against a tough schedule, was more deserving than Oklahoma. The argument against the Sooners is that they lost to Texas and did not play in a conference championship game.
Despite those protestations, Silver's model shows that Oklahoma was indeed worthy of being included as they may indeed be the best team in the country right now.