Nate Silver: The Patriots are no longer the favorite to win the Super Bowl
Using Nate Silver's 2015 NFL Predictions, a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.
The Carolina Panthers are the favorite heading into Week 14, with a 21% chance to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots are still the favorite in the AFC, with a 19% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy in February.
According to Silver's model, there is an 78% chance that the Super Bowl will be won by one of these five teams:
- Carolina Panthers, 21%
- New England Patriots, 19%
- Arizona Cardinals, 15%
- Denver Broncos, 13%
- Cincinnati Bengals, 10%
This is a stark change from two weeks ago, when the Patriots were still undefeated and Silver's model gave them a 33% chance to win it all, well ahead of the Panthers at 18%.
This week, the Seattle Seahawks (6%), Green Bay Packers (6%), and Kansas City Chiefs (4%) are the only other teams with more than a 2% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
At the other end of the spectrum, 11 teams can most likely be scratched off as playoff contenders, with less than a 5% chance of grabbing one of the 12 playoff spots. Those teams are the Chargers, the Lions, the Browns, the Titans, the 49ers, the Ravens, the Raiders, the Rams, the Saints, the Jaguars, and the Dolphins.
You can see the full projections at FiveThirtyEight.