NATE SILVER: New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers are the heavy favorites to go to the Super Bowl
Using Nate Silver's "2015 NFL Predictions," a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.
Heading into Week 8, the Patriots are still the favorite and their chances are still growing, up from 19% three weeks ago and 24% last week, to 25% this week. The Packers are the favorite in the NFC with an 18% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Of the projections run this week by Silver's model, 83% of the seasons ended with one of these teams winning the Super Bowl:
- New England Patriots, 25%
- Green Bay Packers, 18%
- Denver Broncos, 14%
- Cincinnati Bengals, 11%
- Carolina Panthers, 10%
- Arizona Cardinals, 5%
The Seattle Seahawks (4%) and Atlanta Falcons (3%) are the only other teams with more than a 2% chance of winning it all.
The Patriots (>99%), Bengals (98%), Broncos (98%), Packers (96%), and Panthers (95%) are all near-locks to make the playoffs.
At the other end of the spectrum, four teams are already nearly eliminated from playoff contention. The Detroit Lions (1%), Cleveland Browns (1%), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2%), and Chicago Bears (4%) all have less than a 5% chance to make the playoffs.
Here are the eight teams with the best chance to win each division:
- AFC East - New England Patriots, 93% chance to win their division
- AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals, 86%
- AFC South - Indianapolis Colts, 59%
- AFC West - Denver Broncos, 95%
- NFC East - New York Giants, 40%
- NFC North - Green Bay Packers, 88%
- NFC South - Carolina Panthers, 66%
- NFC West - Arizona Cardinals, 50%
You can see the full projections at FiveThirtyEight.