NATE SILVER: Brazil Is The Massive Favorite To Win The World Cup
Silver's model gives Brazil a 45% chance of winning. No other team has greater than a 13% chance, according to his numbers.
Everyone from sportsbooks to Goldman Sachs has declared Brazil the favorite over the last few weeks. Silver agrees.
The full list of favorites:
- Brazil, 45%
- Argentina, 13%
- Germany, 11%
- Spain, 8%
- Chile, 4%
- France, 4%
- Colombia, 3%
- Uruguay, 2%
- England, 2%
- Belgium, 2%
No other team has a more than 1% chance of winning. The U.S. has a 0.4% chance of winning the whole thing and a 36% chance of getting out of Group G.
Brazil is a favorite for some obvious reasons. They're in an incredibly easy group with Mexico, Croatia, and Cameroon (Silver gives them a 95.2% chance of advancing to the knockout rounds). They're also playing at home, where they haven't lost in more than a decade.
Even if they were in a tough group and were playing outside South America, they'd be one of the favorites because of the overwhelming strength of the team. Contrary to the team's reputation in past World Cups, Brazil probably has the best defense in the tournament. They also have a bunch of creative midfielder players and a world-class playmaker in Neymar.