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Using Nate Silver's "2015 NFL Predictions," a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.
Heading into Week 7, the Patriots are still the favorite and their chances are still growing, up from 19% two weeks ago and 23% last week, to 24% this week. The Packers are the favorite in the NFC with a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Of the projections run this week by Silver's model, 73% of the seasons ended with one of these teams winning the Super Bowl:
- New England Patriots, 24%
- Green Bay Packers, 19%
- Denver Broncos, 13%
- Cincinnati Bengals, 9%
- Carolina Panthers, 8%
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals are next on the list, with both having a 4% chance of winning it all.
The Broncos (96%) and Bengals (96%) join the Patriots (99%) and Packers (97%) this week as the first teams to eclipse a 95% chance of making the postseason, making them virtual locks for the playoffs after just six weeks. The Carolina Panthers are on the cusp at 92%.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are still just three teams without a legit shot to make the playoffs. The Detroit Lions (4%), Jacksonville Jaguars (3%), and Cleveland Browns (2%) all have less than a 5% chance to make the playoffs.
Here are the eight teams with the best chance to win each division:
- AFC East - New England Patriots, 89% chance to win their division
- AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals, 76%
- AFC South - Indianapolis Colts, 68%
- AFC West - Denver Broncos, 94%
- NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles, 38%
- NFC North - Green Bay Packers, 90%
- NFC South - Carolina Panthers, 62%
- NFC West - Arizona Cardinals, 49%
You can see the full projections at FiveThirtyEight.