MORGAN STANLEY: Monthly truck orders are starting to 'unwind' for the first time in years
- 2018 was a red-hot year for the trucking industry.
- Analysts predicted that 2019 would bring a slowdown to freight transportation, but it's happening even quicker than they predicted.
- One key reason is the decrease in Class 8 truck orders in November.
Following a year of record-smashing growth in the trucking industry, Morgan Stanley analysts are suggesting a "cautious" stance to freight transportation.
One key reason is the drop in Class 8 truck orders in November, according to ACT Research. Around 27,900 trucks were ordered, though Morgan Stanley said ACT had forecasted 39,300 orders. This is the first year-over-year decline on truck orders since December 2016.
What's more, cancellations are up. In October, 3.8% of orders in the backlog were canceled against a seasonal median of 2.8%.
"(W)e continue to remain cautious on Freight Transportation, though our concern is largely on the demand side as the supply side bear case continues to unwind as we had expected," wrote Morgan Stanley freight transportation analysts in a Dec. 10 report.
But just a few months ago, the trucking equipment market was red-hot
It's an about-face from 2018's fervent ordering market. Up a remarkable 150.3% year-over-year, August was an all-time record month for new truck orders, even though it's typically one of the slowest months.
The waitlist for new commercial trucks in 2018 was as long as six months, according to Michael DiCecco, who is executive managing director of Huntington Bank's asset finance sector. It typically takes just 10 weeks to receive a new truck.
Indeed, analysts knew this truck ordering slowdown would come. "The truck equipment industry is one of the most cyclical around," Don Ake, vice president at freight-equipment research group FTR, told Business Insider in August.
Ake said trucking companies typically buy huge amounts of equipment when the industry is hot. And 2018 has been one of the best years on record for the trucking industry.
Then, when the market contracts, trucking companies are left with lots of new equipment but not much use for it.
"We will build too many trucks, and then any pullback that you have in the economy causes this large down cycle," Ake previously said. "It's bad for everyone in the industry, but you can't control it."
Still, this downturn came quicker than any analysts forecasted earlier this year. Both Steve Tam, VP of ACT Research, and Ake previously told Business Insider that they predicted freight growth to slow in the second half of 2019.