Modi's Popularity Dips But NDA Still Leading: Survey

NDA is likely to get between 212 and 232 seats if the Lok Sabha elections were held today, with BJP alone winning between 193 and 213, according to an opinion poll done for a TV channel. The poll, based on a survey of six states, puts the UPA a distant second with 119 to 139 seats, of which Congress was projected to win between 94 and 110.

The CNN-IBN poll, conducted by CSDS and Lokniti, made these projections based on surveys in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Delhi. While the seat figures are more or less the same as the projections done by the same pollsters in January, the popularity rating of Narendra Modi has dipped significantly.

In January, 36% of respondents to the survey had chosen Modi as their preferred PM. That figure is now down to 31%. In contrast, there has been an uptick of one percentage point each in those picking Rahul Gandhi (now 13%), Sonia Gandhi, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh and Manmohan Singh.

The poll also shows BJP’s projected vote share down marginally from the January estimate and the Congress vote share too down marginally. The saffron party continues to enjoy a significant lead with 33% compared to Congress’ 26%.

Apart from the NDA and UPA, the Trinamool Congress is likely to be the biggest party winning between 20 and 28 seats, according to the survey. The Left with 15-23, AIADMK with 14-20, YSR Congress and SP with 11-17 seats each, BJD, TDP and DMK with 10-16 each and BSP with 8-14 could be the other significant players in the 16th Lok Sabha, it projected.

If these projections turn out right, it would almost certainly mean that the next government in New Delhi would be headed by Modi and would be cobbled together by the existing NDA joining hands with smaller regional parties. Neither Congress nor the ill-defined Third Front/Federal Front would really be in a position to take a meaningful shot at forming a government in such a scenario.