Modi’s China visit might spell hope---or just hoopla

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s China trip is his 17th foreign nation visit since he assumed office. Though his China tour would last only for three days---May 14th to 16th—but the attractions of his trip are countless. The list includes: thunderous speeches by public figures; the visit to Xian, hometown of Chinese Premier; the cultural hoopla-hoos in various ceremonies; the business and trade partnership during his Beijing visit and finally, and his undoubtedly charming address to the Shanghai youth.

Even though the bonding between the two Asian rivals is crucial, Modi’s visit does not lead to such jaw-dropping anticipation as many might believe---or even hope for. Experts wonder how his physical trip to a historically sparring country could take issues forward to a point we want them to.

To look back, both the countries have long-standing commercials, historical and ‘conflicting’ links. The clouds over their relationship continue to loom in spite of decades of effort.

To begin with, the root casue of the dispute was a 3,500-km border in the Himalayas that sputtered into a war in1962 and involved large tracts.

China claims that 90,000 square kilometres in the eastern sector of the Himalayas belongs to it. India considers it to be an Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, but China calls it South Tibet. India objects to China occupying 38,000 square kilometres of its land on the Aksai Chin plateau in the west.

Moreover, both nations have always been military and economic competitors. Last month, India increased its defense budget by 11% to $40 billion, even though it cannot match China’s frigates or defence preparedness.

Chinese business penetration in the littoral states of the Indian Ocean raises some concern, so India is hoping to defuse issues. After China, Modi’s visit to Seychelles, Mauritius and then Sri Lanka would be the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in 28 years, for he hopes to “expand military as well as economic ties.”

President Xi’s visit eight months back made the two countries thrash all the issues that dog them: the boundary dispute, trade, investment, market access, the maritime Silk Route, Kailash-Mansarovar... the list is endless.

The joint statement between the two nations on Building a Closer Developmental Partnership was issued on September 19, 2014 after President Xi’s team went into every pettifogging issue.

Yet, the biggest thorn in the flesh is still stuck there. Last September, when President Xi Jinping visited India for his first summit talks with Modi, China intruded into Chumar.

This year, in February, Modi’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh in order to open two development projects had China fuming again. The foreign ministry released a condemnatory press release. The Chinese vice-foreign minister thundered at the Indian ambassador that the PM had transgressed “China’s territorial sovereignty, rights and interests” and that “violates the consensus to appropriately handle the border issue”.
Modi, not to be left out, retorted: “Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India and will always remain so…China will also have to leave behind its mindset of expansion.”

Fortunately, India is also an emerging Asian giant---or at least seems to be---and China cannot afford not to play its cards, although that huge nation has a strong bond with India’s arch enemy, Pakistan,

China is also wary of India’s role in setting up the ‘Quadrilateral Initiative’---a formal defence pact among India, US, Japan and Australia, effectively isolating China. There are hints that the plan would even include Central Asia, Mongolia, the Korean peninsula, and all other countries in Southeast Asia except China.

Fortunately, the disputed region of Arunachal Pradesh does not parallel the Kashmir issue, which dogs the Indo-Pak relationship. While aggressive Pakistan looks at the K-problem as a “plus point”, and a driver of their terrorist, anti-India policy, China is groping for solutions. While the Chinese are as patriotically passionate about the disputed land as Indians say they are, they also recently appear willing to compromise, with a give-and-take approach.

Hence, in recent days, the mood seems to have softened, with China soft-pedalling its approach, and trying to woo, rather than hard-sell its intentions. Although the Chinese want to oppose the visits to a disputed area, they do want to keep the objections moderate.

Experts claim that the Chinese are putting in a lot of effort to keep the border tension-free in the last five months. When Sushma Swaraj visited China, the Chinese chiefs seemed to be eager to take the relationship to a high level. The signals showed that the talks between Swaraj and her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi was characterised by “extraordinary warmth and cordiality”.

The wording of their “protests” seem muted, though the content is the same, with China mentioning that they do not recognize the McMahon Line as well as the three areas 'belonging' to it. In the latest protest, the Chinese foreign ministry asked for a “fair and reasonable” resolution of the border issue through negotiations.

“At the moment the boundary negotiations are in the process of building up small, positive steps,” Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said recently. “It is like climbing a mountain. The going is tough, that is only because we are on the way up,” he added.

Modi’s visit, then, may be just the tip of an iceberg, or the first step in a long haul. There are hints of bilateral thrust-and-parry as well as compromise in the tone, attitude and unspoken desires of both countries.

If this one large and killing problem of disputed land is nailed, then, the Asian giants can hold hands on every other issue. They may not even call for pompously heralded heads-of-states to visit each other.