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But mobile execs who talked to The Information's Amir Efrati at the Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona last week think the Apple Watch will utterly dominate both smartwatch profits and marketshare for the next few years.
One Android smartwatch designer pointed out that Apple is in a particularly good position to hit the ball out of the park with the Apple Watch because it controls both the hardware and the software experience.
The only thing keeping Apple from making the Apple Watch an integral part of its business is because the watch needs a relatively recent-model iPhone to operate. Apple can only sell as many watches as they do iPhones.
But even if Apple Watch sales are artificially limited, the company could still sell millions more than any other smartwatch in existence.
Other execs at MWC pointed out that the Apple Watch's design - it doesn't look like a traditional watch - could deter people from buying it.
Apple is working hard to skirt that issue by marketing the Apple Watch as a fashion accessory.
The company recently placed a 12-page spread in Vogue to appeal to customers who might not normally find themselves wanting a smartwatch that can buy things and monitor their health, in addition to telling time.