NFL WEEK 4: Our official predictions for who wins this weekend

The pick: Bengals +5.5

The logic: The Falcons defense is now missing two safeties and a linebacker. Atlanta's offense is impressive, but the Bengals should be able to keep pace.

The pick: Bears -3

The logic: You don't like laying points with Mitch Trubisky, but this is the best defense that the Buccaneers have faced yet. Ryan Fitzpatrick showed flashes of his old self last week before bouncing back in the second half, but Khalil Mack presents a world of trouble.

The pick: Lions +3

The logic: Tough road game for the Lions, but they need the win in this spot to keep pace with the NFC North. Dallas has failed to impress in every game so far this year.

The pick: Packers -9.5

The logic: Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked like himself the past two weeks, but the Packers should be able to take care of business at home against a Bills team that just emptied the playbook against the Vikings.

The pick: Eagles -4

The logic: Don't like going against a home dog, but Marcus Mariota is still dealing with an elbow injury that might make some throws difficult, and the Eagles feel born again with Carson Wentz back under center.

The pick: Colts -1

The logic: The Colts just took the reigning Super Bowl champions to the brink last weekend, and are still looking for their first home win since the return of Andrew Luck. The Texans look lost.

The pick: Patriots -6.5

The logic: The Patriots really might not be the same team this year. But the idea of losing three straight games still feels inconceivable for Bill Belichick and company, and the 3-0 Dolphins feel due for a slump.

The pick: Jaguars -7.5

The logic: Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is facing off against the best secondary in football. I do not expect it to go well.

The pick: Raiders -2.5

The logic: The Cleveland Browns won their first game in two years on Thursday behind a brilliant effort from rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield, but winning two in a row feels like a tough ask. Jon Gruden and his $100 million contract have to get a win at some point right?

The pick: Cardinals +3

The logic: A brutal game to find an angle on because Josh Rosen is such an unknown. When in doubt, take the home dog.

The pick: Giants +3.5

The logic: The Giants finally played up to their potential last week, and hopefully can keep the run going at home. The Saints are coming off a leave-it-all-out-there overtime win against a division opponent, and playing their first outdoor game of the year.

The pick: Chargers -10

The logic: Laying 10 points with Philip Rivers isn't ideal, but how many points can the 49ers offense manage with C.J. Beathard at the helm?

The pick: Ravens +3

The logic: These AFC North divisional games always feel like they end up close, and the Ravens defense shouldn't be surprised by the Steelers attack, even if it did look a bit rejuvenated last week.

The pick: Broncos +4.5

The logic: Patrick Mahomes has destroyed our picks so far this season, but he hasn't yet faced a test like the Broncos defense at Mile High. Close your eyes and take the home dog.