NFL WEEK 11: Our official predictions for who wins this weekend

I've been losing on the Lions all year, but if I'm trying to break a poor streak of picks, my only option is to trust the process, and that means backing home underdogs in spots like this.

The Falcons blew it against the Browns last week while the Cowboys beat up on the Eagles on national television. This feels like an over-correction, as Atlanta would have likely been 5- or 6-point favorites in this spot before last Sunday.

The Colts have won three straight games after a dreadful 1-5 start to the year, and are facing off against a Titans team that always seems to play to the level of their opponent. Tennessee is coming off a huge win over the Patriots and looks due for a let-down.

The Buccaneers are a scary side in this game — last week they cleared 500 yards of total offense but somehow managed just three points. That's not a trend that feels likely to repeat itself.

But the Giants finally showed some signs of putting things together against the 49ers, and while Eli Manning is certainly still missing throws, he's making a few more as well. Odell Beckham Jr. said the goal after the Giants' bye week was to win eight straight and take the division — let's see if they can do it.

I know we should be backing the home dog again, but the Texans are better than the Buccaneers team that put up 500 yards against the Redskins last week. Washington is being held together by duct tape right now and is due to collapse eventually.

Last year the Jaguars humiliated the Steelers with a 30-9 victory in Pittsburgh that saw Ben Roethlisberger picked off five times. Then in the postseason, the Jaguars did it again, eliminating the Steelers in front of their home crowd after jumping out to a 21-0 lead and never looking back.

With the Steelers surging and the Jaguars in absolute free-fall, this looks like a perfect spot for some revenge on Pittsburgh's behalf.

There's no line being offered at most sportsbooks at the time of this writing because Joe Flacco is currently questionable to start for the Ravens, but I honestly might prefer Baltimore start Lamar Jackson in this spot.

Either way, backing the Ravens.

Neither of these teams are good and the Raiders have now lost five straight games by two touchdowns or more. But the Cardinals are the lowest-scoring team in the country, managing under 14 points per game in a year when offenses are exploding like never before. It's impossible to pick them as a favorite.

While their 3-6 record might not show it the Denver Broncos have been far more competitive than one might think. The Broncos have lost six of their past seven games, but just one of those losses has come by more than one score.

Being spotted a touchdown in a divisional game with this Broncos team feels like a steal — take the points.

The Eagles have been feeling the Super Bowl slump all season, culminating in Sunday night's absolute dud against the Dallas Cowboys.

But now, facing the Saints on the road, the Eagles are more desperate than they've been all year for a win, and it feels like they'll find a way to keep things close in this one.

The Vikings are coming off of a bye week and look ready to put together an impressive second half.

While the Bears do currently have a surprise lead on the NFC North, their wins are far from impressive, with victories over the Bills, Jets, and Cardinals counting towards their record but doing little to build their resume.

Minnesota will be a bigger test for the Bears than they've seen in some time, and it feels like the Vikings find a way to come out on top.

The Rams have only lost once all season, but against the spread, they've been a nightmare, barely scraping themselves to a victory while falling short of covering the number.

That changes this week, with the Rams as relatively short home favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Rams have only lost once all season, but against the spread, they've been a nightmare, barely scraping themselves to a victory while falling short of covering the number.

That changes this week, with the Rams as relatively short home favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs.