Auto suppliers could be headed off a cliff if Trump's tariffs on all Mexican goods go into effect
Veoneer
Tenneco Automotive
Ticker: TEN
Market cap: $616 million
Mexican supplier exposure: $400 million
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $20 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 2%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $100 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 11%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -7.4%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
BorgWarner
Ticker: BWA
Market cap: $7.7 billion
Mexican supplier exposure: $500 million
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $25 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 2%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $125 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 10%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -3.1%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
American Axle & Manufacturing
Ticker: AXL
Market cap: $1.2 billion
Mexican supplier exposure: $478 billion
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $24 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 4%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $119 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 19%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -5.2%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Lear Corp.
Ticker: LEA
Market cap: $7.6 billion
Mexican supplier exposure: $1.3 Billion
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $66 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 4%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $328 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 21%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -5.7%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Garrett Motion
Ticker: GTX
Market cap: $1.1 billion
Mexican supplier exposure: $518 million
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $26 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 5%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $130 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 23%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -3.7%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Delphi Technologies
Ticker: DLPH
Market cap: $1.4 billion
Mexican supplier exposure: $500 million
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $25 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 6%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $125 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 30%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -7.3%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Autoliv
Ticker: ALV
Market cap: $5.5 billion
Mexican supplier exposure: $1.1 billion
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $55 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 6%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $275 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 32%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -4.2%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Aptiv
Ticker: APTV
Market cap: $17 billion
Mexican supplier exposure: $2.5 billion
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $125 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 8%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $625 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 38%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -6.7%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Adient
Ticker: ADNT
Market cap: $1.7 billion
Mexican supplier exposure: $1 billion
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $50 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 10%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $250 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 51%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -3.6%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Visteon
Ticker: VC
Market cap: $1.3 billion
Mexican supplier exposure: $500 million
Direct costs of 5% tariffs: $25 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 16%
Direct costs of 25% tariffs: $125 million
Percentage of 2019E EBIT: 82%
Share price move following tariff announcement (5/31): -7.4%
Source: RBC Capital Markets
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