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- Apple will lift the curtain on its latest quarter on Tuesday. Here are all the concerns that could shake investors.
Apple will lift the curtain on its latest quarter on Tuesday. Here are all the concerns that could shake investors.
Credit Suisse: 'Looking for an iPhone trough, but recovery will take time'
Morgan Stanley: 'We believe the stock can continue to work from here'
Price target: $234 (upped from $220)
Rating: Overweight
"Despite the 40%+ rally from the lows following the December quarter pre-announcement on Jan. 2nd, we see a number of reasons to remain bullish," analysts led by Katy Huberty wrote in a note to clients last week.
The analysts are encouraged by a few elements:
- They believe investors underappreciate Apple's platform, with iOS users' mobile- app spending 10 times that of Android users.
- iPhone data points have begun stabilizing, the analysts have found.
- Apple and Qualcomm's settlement increases the likelihood of Apple launching a 5G iPhone in 2020, which the stock typically begins pricing in six to nine months in advance, they said.
"Lastly, our conversations with institutional investors suggest most are uninvolved or underweight/short despite the likelihood of Services growth re-accelerating, iPhone declines moderating,and continued share price support from the company buying back stock," they added.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: 'Focus on gross margins'
Price target: $220
Rating: Buy
"In our opinion, investors expect fundamentals to be weak heading into AAPL earnings despite the recent move in the stock," analysts led by Wamsi Mohan wrote in a note to clients last week.
Investors will likely be focused on factors including gross margins (expected to be low given Apple's discounting to clear iPhone inventory), services growth expectations of around 20%, overall revenue within the guided range of $55 billion to $59 billion, updated demand commentary from China and other emerging markets, and any color on the company's Qualcomm settlement.
UBS: 'Earnings/Guidance Should Be Fine'
Price target: $235 (upped from $215)
Rating: Buy
"Off low expectations, results/guide should be fine," analysts led by Timothy Arcuri wrote in a note to clients last week.
"iPhone mix remains challenging, but FX headwinds also start to abate in June. The big unknown remains China and 3rd party gov't data did not show much iPhone improvement post-CNY," though the worst seems to be behind investors, they added.
Raymond James: 'Darkness, But a Potential Dawn'
Price target: N/A
Rating: Market perform
"While we had been seriously concerned that Apple would miss the CY20 5G cycle, that has now changed after their settlement with Qualcomm," analysts led by Chris Caso wrote in a note to clients last week.
"Certainly Apple has to contend with a serious deterioration in mix (which causes us to cut our FY20 estimates), and the math just doesn't work for a Services bull thesis."
While firm is encouraged by the the potential for a 5G phone, pointing to that as a bright spot in an uncertain Apple narrative, they're concerned that the iPhone mix "deteriorating."
Wells Fargo: 'Cautious Stance' ahead of earnings
Price target: $190
Rating: Market perform
Analysts led by Aaron Rakers said in a note last week that they "struggle to look past the weak iPhone demand-related data points and recommend a cautious stance" into quarterly earnings.
They're encouraged by the company's Qualcomm settlement, their belief that iPhone weakness concerns are largely priced into the stock, and Apple's expansion into subscription services.
"The rate of expansion of Apple's installed base should remain a key focus," the analysts added.
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