2019 will be a critical year for Tesla - here's what to expect from the automaker

After a profitable third-quarter in 2018, Tesla could post its first six-month period in the black EVER.

Regardless of the bottom line, Tesla's topline revenue should continue to surge. For the full year of 2019, the company could bring in close to $30 billion.

Tesla has a market mismatch in the US with its Model 3, a sedan in an SUV world. The Model Y will fix that.

The company has also said it will pay off $920 million in convertible debt, due in September, with a mix of stock and cash. But shares need to be trading at around $360 per share for the stock deal to be appealing to bondholders.

Construction started in late 2018, but Tesla needs to borrow a few billion to finish the facility, expected to produce vehicles for the massive China market.

Tesla's cash management was rather solid in 2018. But the business isn't going to get any cheaper in 2019, and Tesla has a bad habit of keeping less money in the bank than it needs to run to the company for a full year.

If it can sustain profitability in 2019, that situation could change. If not, then a capital raise could be in order. It doesn't have to be equity related. Tesla could also tap the debt markets.

Tesla didn't really have that many vehicles to sell in the summer of 2018, as it struggled with Model 3 production.

But summer of 2019 should be a different story, as Model 3 production levels off and less-expensive trim levels hit the market. It could be the first serious summer selling season in Tesla's history.

By the way, we should also have a pretty fair sense of whether Tesla will be competitive in the self-driving cars race, as both Alphabet's Waymo and GM's Cruise will have services in the marketplace.

Tesla makes impressive vehicles. However, the "making" part remains a work in progress. While established automakers crank millions of vehicles annually, Tesla has struggled to produce a few hundred thousand.

Investors have been willing to give the company a break. But that patience should end in 2019.

If Tesla executes in the first half of 2019, Musk & Co. could experience their first ... BORING AUGUST!

To be honest, that would be welcome.

Thanks to Musk's undisciplined 2018, Tesla shook up its board, deposing Musk as Chairman and adding Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison as a director.

The influence that a board can have over Musk, who owns 20% of Tesla, is overrated. But by the end of the third quarter, we ought to have a sense of whether the rejiggered board is controlling Musk — or simply managing him.

The third quarter is always Tesla's most important, mainly because it's been a period when profits have materialized in the past.

For 2019, assuming Tesla can execute over the first half, a positive results will indicate the company's first shot at a profitable full year.

Amid all the possible good news, Tesla has a core problem to confront: the more vehicles it makes, the more its aging factory in Fremont will show the stress.

If Tesla goes like hell in the third quarter, Fremont could break.

If Fremont doesn't break, then 2019 could end up being epic for Tesla. If the company can produce and sell half a million vehicles, it will be on its way to becoming the first American carmaker to join the Detroit big three automakers in decades.

Say hello to the big four: GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, and Tesla.