16 players who could be risky to draft in fantasy football

Team: New York Jets

2018 stats: n/a

Consensus rank: 13th

Average draft position: 7th

Why he's a risk: After holding out for a year, then joining a new team, the NFL world is eager to see Bell again. It didn't help Bell's case that James Conner assumed his role in Pittsburgh last season and seemingly picked up where Bell left off. Now Bell joins a team with a worse quarterback, worse surrounding talent, and a worse offensive line. The touches should certainly be there, but it's hard to imagine Bell's efficiency and production remaining as high as 2017.

Team: Minnesota Vikings

2018 stats: 615 rushing yards, 40 catches, 305 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 16th

Average draft position: 20th

Why he's a risk: It's all about health with Cook. He's played just 15 games over two seasons, and while he's been good — explosive, at times — his full numbers won't blow anyone away. On a per-game basis, Cook was 25th in fantasy points per game in standard leagues. Taking him in the second round is a gamble that he stays healthy and reaches his upside.

Team: Los Angeles Rams

2018 stats: 1,251 rushing yards, 59 catches, 580 receiving yards, 21 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 19th

Average draft position: 11th

Why he's a risk: Gurley's role mysteriously diminished down the stretch of last season, and it was reported over the offseason that he is dealing with arthritic issues in his knee from a torn ACL and surgery. The Rams matched an offer for reserve running back Malcolm Brown and used a third-round pick on Darrell Henderson, which tells you they are nervous, too. Last year's fantasy MVP may well be fine enough to continue being an elite player, albeit with a lighter workload, but it's simply unclear. That said, if Gurley falls too far on draft boards, he could end up being a league winner.

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

2018 stats: 256 rushing yards, 23 catches, 160 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 23rd

Average draft position: 24th

Why he's a risk: Williams enters 2019 as a first-time starter after he took over for Kareem Hunt in 2018 and finished the season strong. The lack of resumé makes Williams risky enough, but he has also dealt with a hamstring issue in training camp that caused head coach Andy Reid to lament how much time he's missed. Meanwhile, reserve running back Carlos Hyde has received praise for his play in camp. It's worth wondering just how much of a workload Williams will have and if he'll be passed on the depth chart at any point this season.

Team: San Francisco 49ers

2018 stats: 88 catches, 1,377 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 24th

Average draft position: 31st

Why he's a risk: Kittle will be taken early and justifiably so. However, there is a risk of regression. The 49ers drafted two wide receivers in the first three rounds and signed running back Tevin Coleman, meaning there are more mouths to feed in San Francisco. Kittle also posted an incredible 784 yards after the catch, second in the NFL, and 20 plays of 20 yards or more, tied for eighth overall and first among tight ends. Perhaps this is just who Kittle is, but barring more trips to the end zone, it's likely Kittle's big plays decrease.

Team: Dallas Cowboys

2018 stats: 75 catches, 1,005 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 28th

Average draft position: 34th

Why he's a risk: Cooper had an explosive second half of the season last year with the Cowboy, but the total numbers are a little misleading. Cooper had 397 yards and 5 touchdowns in two monster games against the Redskins and Eagles. Otherwise, in his time in Dallas, he topped 70 yards just twice and finished with fewer than 40 yards four times. It's certainly possible that Cooper will produce big games more consistently after a full training camp and with a lack of other major weapons in Dallas. But he's being drafted as WR12 on the back of two monster games compared to seven other "meh" games with Dallas.

Team: Tennessee Titans

2018 stats: 1,509 rushing yards, 15 catches, 99 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 31st

Average draft position: 36th

Why he's a risk: Fantasy owners had just about given up on Henry last year before he exploded for 238 yards and 4 touchdowns in Week 14 against the Jaguars. Ask how many fantasy players even had him in their lineup for that game. He followed that monster game with 347 yards and 3 touchdowns over the next three weeks. Before then, Henry was wholly touchdown dependent, as he hadn't topped 60 rushing yards all season, and was a non-factor in the passing game. So which Henry do you believe in — the dominant player from the last quarter of the season or the RB34 from Weeks 1-13?

Team: Minnesota Vikings

2018 stats: 113 catches, 1,373 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 32nd

Average draft position: 27th

Why he's a risk: Many fantasy experts are predicting a regression from Thielen. After beginning last season with eight straight 100-yard games and seven touchdowns, Thielen then posted only one more 100-yard game and two touchdowns over the next seven games. He struggled under new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, who also wants to run the ball more this season. If you believe Thielen falls somewhere between his monster start and sluggish finish last season, he should be a solid WR2, but his second-half struggles last year should also prevent him from going too high.

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

2018 stats: 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Consensus rank: 38th

Average draft position: 17th

Why he's a risk: Mahomes led all fantasy players in points in 2018 and had one of the best seasons of all-time. But picking a quarterback in the first four rounds is simply not worth it. Mahomes is likely to regress; if he doesn't, he may be perhaps the greatest quarterback of all-time. Though he could still be the best quarterback in fantasy this year, the quarterback class is so loaded that you can grab a player who will post similar numbers to Mahomes in the later rounds and load up on skill players earlier.

Team: Seattle Seahawks

2018 stats: Carson: 1,151 rushing yards, 163 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns; Penny: 419 rushing yards, 93 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 41st (Carson), 76th (Penny)

Average draft position: 43rd (Carson), 73rd (Penny)

Why he's a risk: There may not be a tougher backfield to figure out than the Seahawks'. Carson, a seventh-rounder, handled most of the work last year over Penny, a first-round pick. The updates from the Seahawks' training camp are noisy. Carson had knee work done this offseason while Penny was said to come in in better shape. The Athletic's Michael-Shawn Dugar reported that Carson looks like the best running back on the roster. Penny is said to be impressing teammates at training camp. Carson still appears to be the lead back, but there's a chance this is closer to a 50-50 split than imagined and that neither player gets a big enough or consistent enough workload to be a reliable fantasy player.

Team: Miami Dolphins

2018 stats: 535 rushing yards, 53 catches, 477 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 63rd

Average draft position: 56th

Why he's a risk: Drake was among last year's most frustrating fantasy players because of an uneven usage under Adam Gase. He was out-snapped by the 35-year-0ld Frank Gore. The Dolphins changed coaches, but there is still some concern about his role, especially after the Dolphins drafted a running back while reports said that second-year back Kalen Ballage was taking first-team snaps in training camp. If you have two or three running backs on your roster already and Drake is still available, he's worth a shot, but relying on him as one of your top RBs is risky.

Team: New Orleans Saints

2018 stats: 68 catches, 896 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 81st

Average draft position: 83rd

Why he's a risk: Tight end is tricky this year, with three top players and then a lot of unknown afterward. Cook is being drafted as TE7 after a big year with the Raiders. However, the Raiders didn't bother to re-sign Cook in free agency. After seeing 101 targets last year, Cook now joins the Saints, where Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara get the bulk of the work. The Saints' offense could support another strong year from Cook, but considering he had only topped 700 yards once in his career and never had more than 5 touchdowns before 2018, he's a regression candidate.

Team: Indianapolis Colts

2018 stats: 66 catches, 750 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns

Consensus rank: 93rd

Average draft position: 71st

Why he's a risk: Nearly a fifth of Ebron's catches last year were touchdowns — that's unlikely to continue, particularly if fellow tight end Jack Doyle is healthy. Ebron finished fourth among tight ends in fantasy points in standard-scoring last year. Assuming a touchdown regression, he's likely to fall a few spots. Granted, he clearly has a solid rapport with Andrew Luck, which is worth something, but don't expect a repeat of 2018.

2018 stats: 283 points allowed, 50 sacks, 27 interceptions, 6 TDs

Consensus rank: 173rd

Average draft position: 98th

Why they're a risk: The Bears DST outscored the second-best DST by 44 points last year. There's comfort in having a DST to rely on each week, so it's okay to grab the Bears defense a little early, but with an ADP of 98, that means they're going in the ninth or tenth round (depending on how many teams are in a league). That's a little too early for a defense, with no guarantee they'll repeat their stellar 2018 season. Wait for a few more rounds and you can likely get the second-, third-, or fourth-ranked defense, which should be more than fine on a weekly basis.