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This is a fact we should all remember when interpreting predictions of storms and their effects.
Some people have suggested that the powerful Nor'easter meteorologists have been predicting for the last few days (dubbed
That's probably not true, says James West, Senior Meteorologist at Earth Network-WeatherBug.
There's always a chance that a storm can be less severe than forecast, but a "wide-scale bust is not in the cards," he told Business Insider. Forecasters are increasingly confident that this will be a big storm.
"All indications from the computer models and the actually observations — radar, satellite, observations — seen across the East Coast indicates that this storm is a textbook Nor'easter," said West.
In New York City, there will be a mix of sleet and rain this afternoon, before heavy snow rolls in tonight. In most places in the city, the rain has already turned to snow.
We can expect to see six to 10 inches accumulating overnight, with a total snowfall of seven to 14 inches by Saturday morning, which is in line with earlier predictions.
Boston is really going to get slammed.
The city will likely see more than two feet of snow, with a few places seeing up to 30 inches, says West.
As a general consensus: It's "not a great Friday night to be out and about," says West.