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Map Shows Every Country's Likely Casualty Rate In The Event Of A Global Pandemic

Aug 5, 2014, 02:00 IST

AIR

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If you want to know what the human and financial losses of a global pandemic for something like Ebola would look like, someone's already figured it out.

In a post last year, risk modeling gurus AIR calculated that the 1918 Spanish Flu killed between 20 and 100 million people (out of a global population of 1.8 billion) and caused the equivalent of $20 billion in global losses.

AIR then plugged the 1918 pandemic data into 21st century population density and development parameters to come up with a model for what a new Spanish Flu or other serious global pandemic would look like today

It ain't pretty.

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First, there's the map above, showing the casualty ratio by country. As might unfortunately be imagined, developing nations fare the worst, while Western nations see the fewest casualties.

But fewest is a relative term. Here's their table breaking down casualties for a modified G-7 (replacing Italy with Australia):

AIR

It seems safe to conclude from this that whatever it costs to minimize the risk of a global pandemic will pale in comparison to trying to control it once it arrives.

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