Lok Sabha Polls: Nine Days That Could Shape Or Shake India

The gong’s been sounded for one of the most exciting battles in Indian elections. It will be a longdrawn out contest, to be held in nine phases, spread over 36 days from April 7 to May 12.

The votes will be counted on May 16 and on that day or in the next few days it will become apparent who will form the next government — Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi or a surprise Third Front satrap.

Along with the Lok Sabha election, three states — Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim — will also go to the polls.

Assembly elections in Delhi will have to wait till a new government at the Centre has been formed. The nine days when polling will be held are April 7, 9, 10, 12, 17, 24 and 30 and May 7 and 12. The model code of conduct has kicked in with immediate effect.

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Indian elections have been essays in uncertainty since 1967 when Congress’s hegemony faced its first serious challenge. However, indications are that the coming election may be even more exciting. While Congress and BJP are locked in a gladiatorial contest, the entry of AAP has inserted an X factor in the battle.

Going by opinion polls, Congress seems to be heading for its worst-ever performance with some estimates indicating that its tally may shrink to double digits. If that were to happen, the transition of the Congress leadership to Rahul Gandhi could become a wrenching process.

BJP appears poised to make big gains this time. Narendra Modi’s arrival has energized the party’s base and triggered hopes of a comeback after a decade-long power drought at the Centre . Unless BJP falls victim to its historical inability to live up to its promise, this Modi-led resurgence, coupled with a deep disenchantment with Congress, raise the possibility of his rightwing, growth-centric political model spreading to new constituencies.

The Aam Aadmi Party’s stunning debut in Delhi has been a testimony to its success in tapping into the popular resentment against established parties in a remarkably short time. The coming election will show to what extent this fledgling party led by Arvind Kejriwal can convert its appeal into votes in other states. What’s , however, already apparent is that AAP is fast becoming a thorn in BJP’s flesh — the party it is now targeting after having routed Congress in Delhi.

Soon-to-be-born states, FB, Twitter add zing to 2014 polls

It has been reported that Kejriwal will contest from Varanasi if Modi fights from there. And on Wednesday, he was in Gujarat , queering Modi’s pitch in his home state.

This election will also be different because of the spread of social media as a political tool. If the 2004 polls saw parties using mobile phones to reach out to voters, this poll will see Facebook, Twitter and various apps being used to mobilize the techsavvy among 149.5 million new voters.

The assembly election in Andhra Pradesh carries the possibility of two new parties forming governments in the about-to-be-born states of Seemandhra and Telangana. YSR Congress and Telangana Rashtra Samiti respectively are regarded as the frontrunners for the two states which will come into being after June.

Among the states, UP and Bihar will vote on six days; West Bengal and Jammu & Kashmir on five; Assam, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra on three; and Andhra Pradesh, Manipur, Odisha , Rajasthan and Tripura on two days. There will be a single-day poll in Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand and Goa, a majority of northeastern states and Union territories including Delhi.

Announcing the schedule, chief election commissioner V S Sampath, flanked by election commissioners V S Brahma and Nasim Zaidi, appealed to all political parties and candidates to “uphold the peerless democratic traditions by maintaining high standards of political discourse and fair play in the course of their election campaigns”. Sampath said, “We appeal to the leaders of all political parties, especially their star campaigners , to refrain from using language that is against decorum and decency”.