Lok Sabha Polls 2014: Get Set, Vote In Biggest Phase Today

NEW DELHI: Looking to cement its frontrunner status, BJP faces a formidable array of rivals ranging from Congress, Samajwadi Party, BSP, Janata Dal(U) to Jharkhand Mukti Morcha as the biggest round of polling in 121 seats in 12 states takes place on Thursday.

Though BJP is expected to do well in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh where it won state polls last December, it needs to prove its mettle in UP and Bihar and retrieve ground lost to Congress in the Karnataka election in 2013.

A strong performance by BJP in UP, Maharashtra and Bihar, which account for 168 seats, is critical for the party to cross the 200-seat mark, crucial to powering BJP, and specifically its PM candidate Narendra Modi, to the magic halfway mark of 272.

The Shiv Sena and BJP have their task cut out in western Maharashtra’s Maratha belt where the Congress-NCP control over sugar cooperatives gives them significant political clout. NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s family boroughs of Madha and Baramati will also be tested.

The central stretch of Bihar going to polls is a big test for Janata Dal(U) leader Nitish Kumar as the party holds important seats like Arrah, Nalanda and Munger and must contend with the two-pronged threat of RJD-Congress and BJP-LJP.

BJP needs a high strike rate to remain on course to winning more than 20 of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats, an objective integral to the party’s hopes of picking up a rich haul of seats in UP and Bihar.
JD(U) is at risk of being squeezed out of the frame with RJD-Congress appearing a preferred option for Muslims and upper castes, as well as a chunk of middle castes gravitating towards BJP which has sought to encash Modi’s backward caste credentials.

In UP, BJP is banking on a counter-mobilization that cuts across castes to help it challenge SP and check BSP. The latter may face the toughest test as it must compete with SP for the minority vote while protecting parts of its dalit base from drifting to the BJP.

In the 11 seats of Odisha that include tribal ones like Keonjhar and Mayurbhanj as well as those in the coastal heartland, BJP has emerged as a surprise force but its capacity to convert support into seats will be tested by lack of organized presence.

In MP, BJP holds most of the 10 seats and Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia remains the sole hope. In Bengal, Congress has been reduced to a bit player with even BJP grabbing more eyeballs. In Jharkhand, BJP has just two of the six seats up for grabs, and hopes to improve at the cost of Congress-JMM and Babulal Marandi’s JVM(P).