LIVE: Jeff Gundlach outlines his latest views on the markets and the economy
Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital is hosting his latest webcast updating investors on his Total Return Fund and outlining his views on the markets and the economy.
Keep it here as this post will be updated as Gundlach speaks.
The first slide gives us the title of his presentation: "Tick, Tick, Tick ..."
Gundlach said that the title, as you'd expect, is a reference to the markets waiting for the Federal Reserve's next meeting, set for December 15-16.
Right now, markets are basically expecting the Fed to raise rates for the first time in nine years.
Here's Gundlach's first section, with the board game "Kaboom" on it:
Gundlach says that the Fed "philosophically" wants to raise interest rates and will use "selectively back-tested evidence" to justify an increase in rates.
Gundlach said that 100% of economists believe the Fed will raise rates and with the Bloomberg WIRP reading - which measures market expectations for interest rates - building in around an 80% chance of rates things look quite good for the Fed to move next week.
Gundlach said that while US markets look okay, there are plenty of markets that are "falling apart." He adds that what the Fed does from here is entirely dependent on what markets do.
The increase in 3-month LIBOR is noted by Gundlach as a clear signal that markets are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates. Gundlach adds that he will be on CNBC about an hour before the Fed rate decision next Wednesday.
Gundlach notes that cumulative GDP since the last rate hike is about the same as past rate cycles but the pace of growth has been considerably slower than ahead of prior cycles because of how long we've had interest rates at 0%.
Gundlach next cites the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, says that DoubleLine watches this measure:
The ISM survey is a "disaster" Gundlach says.
Gundlach can't understand why there is such a divide between central bank plans in the US and Europe, given that markets were hugely disappointed by a lack of a major increase in European QE last week while the markets expect the Fed will raise rates next week.
