Thomson Reuters
Gundlach, chief executive and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, speaks at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York
The highlight of Gundlach's most recent webcast in December was that a rise in the benchmark 10-year yield to 3% and above would have "a real impact on market liquidity in corporate bonds and junk bonds."
Gundlach also warned of a sell-off in the stock market around inauguration day on January 20, as investors grasp that President-elect Donald Trump doesn't have a magic wand to implement the growth plans they are optimistic about.
Here's a quick recap and scorecard of highlights from Gundlach's 2016 outlook:
- Gundlach said there was no reason to be bullish on oil over the long term. Crude earned a 45% year-to-date gain, but is still roughly half of where it traded at pre-crash recent peak in 2014.
- He forecast that interest rates would move higher, but it was a year to "wait and see" instead of making a bold call. That was mostly accurate - bond yields trended lower until they bottomed in July, started climbing, and then spiked after the US election.
- He took the other side of the consensus call for a higher dollar. It had a choppy year until the post-election surge to the highest level in more than a decade.
- Finally, Gundlach forecast that wages would rise, and profits would remain under pressure. The earnings recession ended in the third quarter, while a tightening labor market put some upward pressure on wages.
The DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund posted a net outflow of $3.5 billion in December, its biggest one-month withdrawal ever, data from research firm Morningstar showed earlier in January.
We'll have live highlights and slides from the webcast after 4:15 p.m. ET. More to come.