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The sentence handed down by US District Judge T.S. Ellis III in Alexandria, Virginia, is well below prosecutors' sentencing recommendation of 19 to 24 years in prison.
Manafort was indicted on 18 counts by special counsel Robert Mueller's office, and was convicted of eight counts of tax and bank fraud by a jury last year; a mistrial was declared for 10 of the other counts due to a deadlocked jury.
The just shy of four-year sentence left some political pundits, former prosecutors, legal experts, and public defenders flummoxed - and they aired both their shock and their theories behind the sentencing on Twitter.
The sentence handed down by US District Judge T.S. Ellis III in Alexandria, Virginia is well below the sentencing recommendation of 19 to 24 years in prison.
Manafort was indicted on 18 counts by special counsel Robert Mueller's office, and was convicted of eight counts of tax and bank fraud by a jury last year; a mistrial was declared for 10 of the other counts due to a deadlocked jury.
The nearly four-year sentence left some political pundits, former prosecutors, legal experts, and public defenders flummoxed - and they aired both their shock and their theories behind the sentencing on Twitter.
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This is just the first of two sentences Manafort will face, he struck a plea deal with Mueller's office and pleaded guilty to two counts obstruction and conspiracy. US District Judge Amy Berman Jackson is overseeing that case in Washington, DC, and she has yet to hand down her sentence.
Here's what experts are saying about the prison sentence Manafort was given on Thursday:
Laurence Tribe, a Carl M. Loeb University Professor at the Harvard Law School and constitutional law expert, tweeted shortly after the verdict, calling the sentence "outrageously lenient."
"Manafort’s 47-month sentence in ED Va is outrageously lenient," he tweeted. "Judge Ellis has inexcusably perverted justice and the guidelines. His pretrial comments were a dead giveaway. The DC sentence next week had better be consecutive."
"47 months is a joke."
Former federal and state prosecutor Elie Honig called the sentencing a "joke" and "unjust."
"A below-guidelines sentence would’ve been perfectly fair but 47 months is a joke," he tweeted.
"Steal millions from US Government, violate bail, get convicted by jury, fake cooperate, lie to prosecutors, refuse to accept responsibility - and get an enormous break. That’s an unjust sentence."
"Two different kinds of justice."
Walter Shaub, an attorney who focuses on government ethics, who formerly served as the director of the United States Office of Government Ethics, also responded to Manafort's sentencing, seemingly referring to the fact that some get harsher sentences for lesser crimes.
"They sure have two different kinds of justice in this country," he said in a tweet.
A possible explanation
A popular legal Twitter account called "PopeHat," which is operated by Ken White, a former federal prosecutor and current criminal-defense and First Amendment litigator in Los Angeles, published a detailed thread hypothesizing why the sentence was lenient.
He pointed out that Judge Ellis has criticized mandatory minimum sentencing for drug and gun laws, but that he cannot give lesser sentences to those convicted of those crimes because of congressional laws requiring mandatory minimum sentences.
"Federal Judges are often on an axis outside of left-right," according to White. "It's about judicial discretion vs. Congressional limits. Many federal judges always despised the Sentencing Guidelines, because it limits what they see as their proper absolute discretion to choose a sentence."
47 months for Manafort before Judge Ellis. That's about 40% of what I guessed, 120 months. It's a very substantial departure (although almost certainly a legal sentence) from the guidelines of 19-24 years.
/2 A departure from 19 years to under 4 years is very dramatic. It's the kind of departure defense lawyers dream of. It's the kind of departure that's FAR more likely to be enjoyed by the sort of person who commits crimes with banks and wires than drugs or guns.
/3 It's pretty surprisingly lenient (though, in context, longer than average for white collar crime). Judge Jackson comes next. She can sentence up to 10, and can make it concurrent or consecutive. This changes my assessment of what she'll do. I suspect she'll max him. /end
/4 Postcript: I totally get why some people think this shows pro-Trump or pro-conservative or anti-Democratic bias on the part of Judge Ellis. If you believe it I'm unlikely to dissuade you. It may have played a part.
/5 Federal Judges are often on an axis outside of left-right. It's about judicial discretion vs. Congressional limits. Many federal judges always despised the Sentencing Guidelines, because it limits what they see as their proper absolute discretion to choose a sentence.
/6 That's not exactly a "liberal" or "conservative" position. So, for instance, Judge Ellis has been a strong critic of mandatory minimum drug and gun sentences, which are the reason he CAN'T give a convicted drug dealer a break like he gave Manafort.https://t.co/MMKlrsamI6
/7 That's why you'll see some judges who would not by any stretch of the imagination be called "liberal" give oddly low sentences sometimes - and sometimes even defy the mandatory minimums (only to get overturned on appeal). They think it should be their decision, not Congress.
/8 So, though it's tempting to see "the fix was in!", and I can never exclude some sort of political bias had a role, I think you'll find most federal criminal practitioners won't leap to that conclusion.
Public defender Scott Hechinger tweeted a thread of prison sentences longer than Manafort's for crimes including "a woman who voted while on probation without knowing she wasn’t allowed to," who was sentenced to five years in prison.
He also pointed out, however, that he was not advocating for harsher sentences — even for Manafort.
"I am not making the argument for *harsher sentences for anyone including Manafort,*" he tweeted. "I am simply pointing out the outrageous disparity between his treatment and others, disproportionately poor & people of color."
Calling out sentencing disparities
Others were less coy about calling out sentencing disparities.
In federal cases, mandatory minimum sentences for some crimes — including drug, pornography, and gun convictions — have been laid out by Congress, not judges.
"There are non-wealthy minorities who went to jail for drug crimes who are screaming right now about how light of a sentence Manafort got ..." national-security lawyer Bradley P. Moss, tweeted.
"Go read the mandatory minimum sentencing provisions for drug offenders and tell me with a straight face being a rich, white male engaging in tax fraud and shady illegal lobbying for violent dictators who slaughter dissidents means you’ll face equivalent punishment in the courts," he continued in a second tweet.
Moss was not the only one to make that point.
Republican strategist Rick Wilson tweeted, "Try being a black kid with 1.00001 ounces of marijuana an not getting the mandatory minimum."
Former US Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, and current University of Michigan Law School professor, Barb McQuade also weighed in.
"Judge Ellis calls #Manafort‘s guidelines range 'quite high,'" she tweeted. "The guidelines are based on data from other cases, and are high here only because the conduct was so egregious. Why are the guidelines considered too high only when the defendant is wealthy and powerful?"
"Have faith, folks."
Joyce Vance, former US Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama appointed by former President Barack Obama, called for people to "have faith" in the justice system.
"Have faith, folks," the current University of Alabama School of Law professor tweeted. "As a prosecutor, I didn’t like every ruling I got from a judge. It’s easy to be disappointed in the system when something like this happens. But the rule of law is still strong and we will get justice."
"Manafort was, of course, not charged with collusion," Vance continued. "This is the equivalent of cutting a drug trafficker a break and sentencing lightly because he didn’t commit murder."
