LABOUR LEADERSHIP BETTING: Jeremy Corbyn is now almost certain to win
The probability of the current Labour leader retaining his position is over 95%, according to some of the UK's biggest bookmakers.
The UK political betting market is currently indicating that Corbyn is all-but-guaranteed to defeat challenger Owen Smith in the contest.
Sky Bet, Betfair, and Paddy Power are all offering odds of 1/20 (95.2%) for Corbyn to see-off Smith - the most likely he has been since the campaigns got underway.
Ladbrokes and William Hill are offering odds of 1/16 (94.1%) for the Islington North MP to win a second consecutive leadership contest.
This leaves former shadow work and pensions secretary Smith in a very dire situation. His best chances of toppling Corbyn are being offered by Paddy Power - but this is just 15/2 (11.8%). This follows a YouGov poll published earlier this week, which gave the current opposition leader a 24-point lead over Smith among Labour members who intend to vote in the election.
Here are the latest Labour leadership betting odds in full
- Ladbrokes: Corbyn 1/16 - Smith 8/1
- William Hill: Corbyn 1/16 - Smith 8/1
- Betfair: Corbyn 1/20 - Smith 8/1
- Paddy Power: Corbyn 1/20 - Smith 15/2
- Sky Bet: Corbyn 1/20 - Smith 8/1
The party membership continues to lean heavily in favour of the Corbyn, despite nearly half of his own supporters (44%) believing the veteran socialist is unable to lead Labour to victory in the 2020 general election.
The recent "Traingate" scandal doesn't seem to have damaged the Labour leader's reputation with the membership as a whole, either. Polling analyst Matt Singh told Business Insider on Thursday that Corbyn's row with Virgin Trains actually helped his rating among members who are eligible to participate in the contest.