KCNA
- Kim Jong Un recently announced North Korea would stop nuclear tests and some missile tests, which will help peace talks go on uninterrupted, but the reason why is troubling.
- Kim says North Korea has finished its nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile program, and therefore it can stop testing.
- Instead of an olive branch, the pause in testing seems to be just a practical step at the end of North Korea's long preparation for nuclear war with the US.
- The gaps between how Kim and President Donald Trump understand the proposed peace process could lead to violent results, an expert said.
North Korea's recent promise to halt nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests looks like an overture for peace, but a careful reading reveals that it could indicate Kim Jong Un is ready for nuclear war - and he just might get it.
Nuclear and ballistic missile tests have long served as a major irritant in the US's relationship with North Korea. Pyongyang has threatened to fire missiles towards US military bases in Guam, and many in the US have discussed intercepting a North Korean launch or countering one with a "bloody nose" strike.
Because of the intensely high risks of escalation around every single North Korean launch, the announcement of a freeze in missile and nuclear testing, as well as shutting down its nuclear testing site, looks like a big step towards peace.
"This is very good
But now look at Kim's stated reason for pausing tests.
North Korean media quoted Kim as saying: "No nuclear test and intermediate-range and inter-continental ballistic rocket test-fire are necessary for the DPRK now, given that the work for mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic rockets was finished…the development of delivery and strike means was also made."
Basically, Kim says North Korea has stopped testing because it's done testing.
"KJU is satisfied," Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, tweeted of Kim's announcement. "This means North Korea is also satisfied with fewer tests than many other [states] that posses nuclear weapons."
While North Korea has never fired an ICBM at range, and only fired its Hwasong-15 ICBM twice, Hanham and other experts think it's already achieved sufficient capability to threaten the US.
On the issue of nuclear testing, Robert Manning, a North Korea expert at the Atlantic Council, told Business Insider there's a "fair amount of evidence" that suggests if they tried to test another nuclear device in the same location, they would destroy the entire site and possibly collapse a mountain.
So North Korea may not need to test another missile, and may not be able to test another nuclear bomb. According to Manning, Kim is "making a virtue of necessity and hoping we're stupid enough to think it's a concession."
Talks could not only fail, but backslide
Reuters/KCNA North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Command of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army (KPA) in an unknown location in North Korea in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency.
But while dressing up the end of an illegal nuclear program may buy Kim some good press in the near term, it could set up disaster in coming talks with Trump.
According to Manning, Trump's belief that he's a great dealmaker, and history of being a "counter-puncher" could lead to things getting "nasty really fast" if Trump feels North Korea has tricked him.
Any perceived slights from Kim to Trump could "get back to [Trump] studying what kind strikes he could make without starting a nuclear war," Manning said.
"I think the fear among a lot of Korea watchers is when you have a summit between two leaders, if things do not go well, there's little to fall back on," Jung Pak, a senior fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at Brookings Institution's Center for East Asia Policy Studies, told MSNBC on Saturday.
So while Trump and much of the world cheer North Korea's decision to stop testing while talks are going on, something that almost certainly does help the peace process, it's important to remember what Kim's nuclear weapons mean to him.