Reuters
Kim Jong Un has an option neither China or the US can employ - the long game.
- Kim Jong Un is 34 and could rule over North Korea for the next 50 years.
- This gives him a massive advantage over Trump, who has a maximum of eight years, and means Kim can play the long game.
- But rather than burn Trump and the US on a bad deal for short-term benefits, Kim may actually look to embrace the US to balance against China.
- China is already a massive power in Asia and set to overtake the US as the world's biggest power.
- Kim has given signs that he wants to resist Beijing's influence - and the US can help him there.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un holds a massive advantage over President Donald Trump in their historic summit planned for Tuesday, and who he plays it against could shape the fate of the region for decades to come.
Kim Jong Un is 34. The Kim Dynasty has held power for about 70 years in North Korea, with leaders serving until their deaths.
Kim's massive advantage over Trump, and even China, is that he could potentially lead his country for another half a century. Trump, 71, is at the mercy of the US system that limits him to eight years in power at most, and therefore can't hope to match that.
Even Chinese President Xi Jinping, who abolished term limits to potentially extend his rule indefinitely, is 64 with no apparent successor.
As Trump himself has acknowledged, making an agreement with Kim would be easy. Even if North Korea is completely disingenuous and has no intention of getting rid of its nuclear arms, Kim could likely get a deal with Trump to slowly remove the weapons and just wait out the clock until Trump leaves office.
But does Kim simply want to play Trump for sanctions relief? Or can the young leader outfox his older counterparts by playing the long game?
Rising China
Jon Woo/Reuters
Is North Korea comfortable being a vassal of China?
Many estimate that China, with its 1.4 billion citizens, will surpass the US in global dominance within Kim's lifetime. If Kim just wants to slam Trump with a raw deal and reap short-term benefits, he has a good opportunity to do so now.
A bad deal with North Korea, one that hastens or brings about the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea, would likely accelerate the loss of US influence in the world's most populous region, and thereby the decline of the US as the world's superpower.
But that would also accelerate China's rise, and upset the delicate balance Kim has struck between the US and China. Under Kim, Pyongyang has tried to distance itself from China and establish its independence.
"North Korea has no reason to believe that the US would be willing or able to defend it from China," Hugh White, an Australian
On Monday Pyongyang's state-run newspaper, one of the only outlets North Koreans can freely read, appeared to be laying the groundwork for a new, normalized relationship with the US.
The Korean Dream
Screenshot/ Reuters TV
Korea is in many ways beholden to its geography. A peninsula caught between Russia, Japan, and China, Korea has spent its history fending off foreign powers.
The great vision of North Korea's Kim dynasty has always been an independent Korea that determines its own destiny without being steered by foreigners.
For that reason, Kim may seek to somewhat embrace the US as part of a delicate balancing act.