Jeff Saut Presents The Ultra-Simple Bull Case For Stocks
On the earnings front, the bottom up operating earnings estimate for the SPX is currently $107.58, leaving the SPX's P/E ratio at almost 16x. Next year's estimate is $121.66. If the SPX continues to trade at that P/E multiple it renders a price target of 1946. Moreover, so far of the 190 companies that have reported earnings, 60.5% of those companies have beaten estimates and 50.9% have beaten revenue estimates. As far as economics, as stated the numbers are probably going to be ignored for a few months because of the shutdown. However, I believe GDP growth will accelerate to 3% in 2014 driven by a capital expenditure cycle because companies like GM are running their plants flat out 24/7 and the equipment is wearing out. Finally, with Janet Yellen at the helm of the Fed it should be steady as you go. That implies no tapering and plenty of liquidity. And, a number of other things are going right in this country.
So the trifecta of bullish tailwinds: Solid earnings growth, an accommodative Fed, and a boom in GDP caused by corporate America's need to invest.