This is exactly right, from Justin Green.
Cut the
— Justin Green (@JGreenDC) April 5, 2013payroll tax
The upshot of today's bad jobs report, assuming the numbers aren't revised massively, is that the retail sector is weak, which implies a negative effect from the increase in the payroll tax that took effect at the start of the year.
And this weakness isn't just confined to March.
Here's a chart of the monthly change in retail employment. You can see that the start of this year has been much weaker than many of the numbers seen last year.
FRED |
What's a good solution?
In a recent interview with Business Insider, former Obama budget chief Peter Orszag suggested a payroll tax holiday that would stay in place until the jobs market was healthy again.
We removed the holiday way too quickly.