Is India Unrealistic In Chasing A Manned Space Programme?

In the last week of September when India created history as ISRO’s low-cost satellite Mangalyaan entered Mars’ orbit, becoming the first country to execute such a project in its maiden attempt (a feat that eluded even the Americans and the Soviets), space mission enthusiasts reminisced an ambitious $2.7 billion promise ISRO made five years ago—to launch the first two Indian astronauts into space by 2015. The decision to send astronauts into space followed the successful launch of the country’s first unmanned lunar mission Chandrayaan in November 2008, which lent India entry into an elite club of nations that have reached the moon.

Though dubbed by critics as India’s attempt to catch up with bigger neighbour China, which sent astronauts to space way back in 2003, once accomplished the project would make India only the fourth country to have managed a manned space mission—behind the US and Russia, which began their manned space missions in the 1960s, besides China.

However, Indians have all reasons to be proud of the progress the country has made in its space programme from 1970s and 1980s when it built small satellites and light rockets, slowly graduating to manufacturing heavier satellites and more powerful rockets in mid-1990s. In fact, the country can rightfully boast of its stature as having one of the world’s few space programmes capable of launching satellites along with those of the US, Russia, China and Japan. What is more creditable is that India has made giant strides in space programs with a meager annual space budget of around $1.5 billion, compared with $3 billion to $5 billion each for Russia, China, Japan and Europe, and several billions for the US.

However, before Indian astronauts reach space, the country has to overcome seemingly challenging technological and costs hurdles. To begin with, ISRO has to build an effective launcher to lift a spacecraft to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV)’s successor GSLV-Mk 3 is capable of lifting a spacecraft weighing up to eight tonnes. However, GSLV, which has failed in four of its first seven flights, has to prove its reliability. Then, ISRO has to build a spacecraft capable of ferrying the astronauts. However, ISRO, which has already conceptualised a 3-tonne spacecraft that can support two astronauts on a two-day space mission, is seen to be on the right track to build the required spacecraft soon.

A few years ago, China reportedly spent $2.5 billion for the first five flights of the Shenzhou lab module, which can support three-person crews for 10 days or more. ISRO’s initial projections for building capabilities for launching a manned space flight—including building launchers, spacecraft and training astronauts—put the costs at $5 billion over several years. Considering inflation must have lifted possible costs much more than these projections, India’s $1.5 billion annual space budget seems quite inadequate.

However, support from Moscow, India’s ally in the Asian space race, will help the country overcome some of these hiccups. Russia is expected to help build the astronaut capsule and select and train the astronauts. Indian astronauts will also get a trial run abroad Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft (Rakesh Sharma became the first Indian to be in the space as part of joint space programme between India and Russia in 1984).

Even technical collaboration with Russia wouldn’t make critics convinced. Considering manned space programmes have no real economic or military applications (the technologies used in such programmes may also have industrial applications at a future date, but those benefits are not significant), they say such progammes are an unwanted luxury for the country where 40 per cent of world’s malnourished children belong and more than 800 million people still survive on half a dollar a day and that poverty alleviation should precede space escapades.

However, space programmes, especially manned ones, have historically been seen as an effective booster of national pride for the countries involved besides a reflection of their technological prowess. Modi’s resurgent India, which is forecast to be among top three global military powers by 2045 along with the US and China, cannot afford to be a laggard when it comes manned space missions where technology, science and adventure perfectly blend.