iPhone sales are going to be mammoth this quarter, says UBS
UBS is predicting that Apple will sell 66 million iPhones this quarter, which blows away estimates of 54 million. It would be the second biggest quarter of iPhone sales ever.
The evidence?
Nearly one-fifth of current Samsung phone owners are considering buying an iPhone in the next year, according to a UBS survey of 4,000 phone owners in the US, UK, China, and Italy.
In another way of looking at it, of all the people who said they are likely or very likely to buy an iPhone in the next year, 30% of those people are current Samsung owners. UBS called the result "stunning" - in past surveys, only 15% to 20% of potential iPhone switchers were coming from Samsung.
UBS reckons people have one less reason to prefer the Samsung Galaxy line-up now that Apple has come out with its large-screen iPhone 6 Plus.
In fact 53% of interested buyers want the Plus, and only 38% are set for the smaller iPhone 6. That's a big change from a UBS survey in September, when potential buyers said they were considering the regular 6 over the Plus by a 2-to-1 ratio.
China is expected to contribute a lot to Apple's success this quarter.
In January UBS estimated that China may have surpassed the US as the biggest iPhone market.
Chinese consumers are particularly interested in "phablet" phones like the iPhone 6 Plus, which is expected to be huge there this spring.
UBS also found that once people buy an iPhone, they're more likely to stick with Apple than with any other smartphone maker. This is especially true in China, where Apple has an 80% retention rate. That's more than twice the retention rate for Samsung and Xiaomi in China.