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Investors are now a lot more worried about a geopolitical crisis

Ben Moshinsky   

Investors are now a lot more worried about a geopolitical crisis
Finance2 min read

RTS3D9An Afghan National Army (ANA) officer takes part in a training exercise at the Kabul Military Training Centre in Afghanistan October 7, 2015. 3

REUTERS/Ahmad Masood

An Afghan National Army (ANA) officer takes part in a training exercise at the Kabul Military Training Centre in Afghanistan October 7, 2015.

Of all the possible fears out there, one has increased the most for investors in the past month - geopolitical risk.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's monthly fund survey, a geopolitical crisis is the biggest tail risk for 18% of investors, up from 13% last month.

The survey was carried out between November 6 and 13, which is before the Paris attacks on the night of November 14, and covered 201 investors managing a total of $576 billion.

A Chinese recession and emerging market debt crisis still win out as bigger fears overall, with 32% and 23% respectively, but with Russia's military involvement in Syria, a migrant crisis and the rise of ISIS, it's not hard to see why investors are concerned.

A so-called tail risk is the risk of something unexpectedly bad happening.

Here's the chart:

BAML tail

Bank of America

Meanwhile, China's economy is gradually winning back investors' confidence after a rocky year in which the country's shares were hit by two crashes.

The fund managers upgraded their view of Chinese growth, with more investors seeing it grow by more than 6%. More than half of those surveyed saw growth above 6%, up from only 28% last month.

And this despite the risk of a recession:

BAML China

Bank of America

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