These 6 shocking twists show just how bad China's economy is right now, says Bank of America
- China's economy – the world's second largest – is slumping.
- Growth is stagnating, stocks have plummeted, and youth unemployment has spiked.
China's hopes for a post-pandemic economic rebound have been dashed this year, with second-quarter GDP figures falling well short of forecasters' expectations and falling prices plunging the country into deflationary territory for the first time since 2021.
Beijing has responded by cutting interest rates – and also stopped publishing unflattering youth unemployment figures in a desperate attempt to pretend everything's OK.
In a research note published Friday, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett called the latest China numbers "positively shocking" and warned of the heightened risk of a major credit event that would send stock prices even lower and require a coordinated international response.
The ongoing liquidity crises for real-estate behemoth Country Garden and shadow bank Zhongrong are one potential source of "event risk," he added.
Here's six other data points Hartnett picked out that show just how badly the world's second-largest economy is doing right now:
- Chinese stocks have tumbled this year with investors fretting about stuttering growth, with a BofA gauge of their performance plunging by 20%. The flagship CSI 300 index has slipped 2% over the same period.
- Bond prices have surged on heightened demand for safer alternatives to stocks, with 10-year government yields falling 30 basis points to 2.6%, meaning they're close to a 14-year low.
- Beijing has dumped $835 billion worth of US Treasurys, slashing its holdings of those bonds to the lowest level since 2009.
- The renminbi has plunged to 7.3 yuan per dollar, with fears about the economy intensifying. It's close to the weakest it's been since the 2008 financial crisis.
- High-yield real estate bond prices have tanked on worries about China's fragile property sector, falling close to a 14-year low.
- Youth unemployment surged to 21% in June – and the National Bureau of Statistics said it would stop reporting that data earlier this week, signaling July's numbers could have made for even grimmer reading.