The Russia-Ukraine war will continue into 2024 and any definitive outcome has risks, a veteran investment chief and former Moscow-based journalist says

Good morning. I'm Phil Rosen. It's good to see you on a Saturday.

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Now, it's been a year since Russia first launched its invasion of Ukraine, and today I'm sharing my conversation with a top investment chief who, before his finance career, worked as a reporter in Moscow.

He anticipates the war continuing well into 2024.

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Rhys Williams is the chief investment officer at Spouting Rock Asset Management. He is also a former Moscow-based journalist for The London Sunday Times.

This conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Phil Rosen: What are the implications for financial markets of Russia's war on Ukraine?

Rhys Williams: A drawn out war is priced in, that's what everybody expects.

We can all root for Ukraine, but if Ukraine starts to win, that raises the risk of tactical nukes and China getting more involved.

If Ukraine really does start to win, it becomes risky for the market, but if Russia wins, that makes markets very nervous too. I do think both cases are unlikely, and that a stalemate is the likely case, which has more or less been priced in.

There will be a sell-off in stocks and probably a flight to bonds in a scenario where either Russia wins big, or loses big.

Aside from markets, how would you characterize this war?

RW: This is an existential war for Vladimir Putin. It may not be in Russia's interests to continue, but Putin is all in.

It's absolutely impossible for Putin to get on national TV and say he made a mistake. He's committed to gaining territory.

Now, with the stock market rebuffing the Fed to start the year, how do you see this year panning out for equities?

RW: The chances of another 2022 are very remote. Things will have to really break terribly for that. But the chances that the market is up 30% are also I think remote.

I think the market is fairly valued, and the kind of companies that can grow and don't need a terrific economy should do relatively well.

Here's the full story from my conversation with Rhys Williams.

What do you think of Williams' insights on markets and the Russia-Ukraine war? Tweet me @philrosenn, or email me prosen@insider.com.

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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com

Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Nathan Rennolds (@ncrennolds) in London.