The housing market's fluctuations of the last year have left the best forecasters torn on what home prices will do in 2023

Hey readers. I'm Phil Rosen, writing to you from midtown Manhattan, where I've attended a handful of events the last two days for NFT NYC. Across cocktail parties and dance floors, everyone here is bullish on tiny digital images that range from apes to stick-figure drawings.

This time a year ago, Jodee Rich, the founder of NFT NYC, told me he wasn't sweating crashing token prices, and that the event could eventually be the South by Southwest of NYC.

I'm not sure if I'd describe it the same way.

But I do know that I've yet to see any invites to a yacht party this week, even though I boarded several oversized boats when I last attended.

That said, today's newsletter focuses on the housing market — and why economists can't seem to agree on what it's going to do next.

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1. Some of the top real-estate forecasters in the world expect home prices to drop in 2023. But some of them also expect the opposite to happen.

Zillow forecasts home prices to climb 0.5% this year, and CoreLogic predicts a year-over-year increase of 3.7% by February 2024.

But strategists at Moody's, meanwhile, said home prices will drop 4.2% in 2023.

The housing market has been sending mixed signals for a year now, and those have come as the Fed made nine consecutive interest rate hikes, helping push the popular 30-year mortgage to two-decade highs.

When you break it down by region, home prices are actually rising and falling at the same time. Broadly, the West is getting cheaper, while the South and East are seeing home values tick higher.

Where the housing market goes from here largely depends on the Fed's next move and any interest rate volatility, given that mortgage rates are influenced by monetary policy, among other factors including demand from homebuyers and general economic conditions.

Last month's financial turmoil that Silicon Valley Bank kicked off has led many analysts to anticipate a cut or pause in rate hikes, which could lead to fluctuations in housing demand and affordability.

Here are a few things to keep in mind for what comes next in housing:

• Wednesday data showed mortgage rates on the most popular US loan dropped to a two-month low.
• Over the last six months, nearly one-third of US homebuyers have paid in all cash.
• CoreLogic economists just signaled that home prices have bottomed out.
• Americans haven't been this gloomy about their housing outlook since 2014.

Have you bought a house in the last year? Do you expect it to increase or decrease in value in 2023? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.

In other news:

2. US stocks futures rise early Thursday, after Wednesday's headline inflation data came in cooler than expected, climbing 5.0% year-over-year. Here are the latest market moves.

3. On the docket: Progressive Corp., Tesco, and more, all reporting.

4. Morningstar strategists just named 10 cheap, defensive stocks they like for a bumpy road ahead. The market will struggle as the economy slows down, but investors can still make smart buys now to profit once conditions get better. Here's what they recommend buying now.

5. Hedge funds are the most bearish they've been since 2011. And with earnings season about to kick off, that could set the stock market up for a massive short squeeze.

6. Warren Buffett just shared his thoughts on crypto, banks, and investing in a rare interview. Speaking with CNBC Wednesday, he underscored the importance of public faith in the banking system, and slammed financial firms for engaging in misleading accounting to inflate profits. Find out what the 92-year-old said about bitcoin.

7. Two Yale researchers think Russia's economic stats are "pure invention from Putin's imagination." Over recent months the Kremlin has been cherry-picking what it wants to share and hide from the world. These academics say the economy is actually imploding.

8. Goldman Sachs ranked the 20 cities where home-price growth is slowing the most. In some areas, homes are depreciating rapidly, but that's not the case in every city. Here's where to look if you're trying to capitalize on the trend — including two major metropolitan areas where prices are plummeting.

9. These six beaten-down bank stocks are about to make a big comeback. The director of equity research at CFRA expects earnings season to bring a rebound in certain financial names after last month's tumult dragged the sector lower. See his list of favorites.

10. Sugar prices just spiked to their highest level in a decade. Prices in New York rose nearly 2% Wednesday as fears of a global supply shock intensified. So far this year, sugar has jumped 19%.

Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com.

Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.