Stocks are really boring right now
- There's not much for equity investors to be excited – or scared – about right now.
- The hype around AI has fizzled out, and the Federal Reserve looks like it'll soon stop raising interest rates.
Stocks are really boring at the moment.
There are lots of people who'd tell you that statement is always true – but in September 2023, it's difficult for even the most ardent markets junkie to find anything to get excited about.
Summing up the lack of drama is the VIX, often referred to as Wall Street's "fear gauge".
The index, which tracks how volatile stocks are, dropped to its lowest level since November 2019 Friday – meaning that the last time the market was so calm, Knives Out was still playing in cinemas and the US was yet to record its first COVID-19 case.
While a lack of volatility isn't necessarily bad news, it does reflect a dull few months for investors. The benchmark S&P 500 index has risen just 1% since the end of June.
It's not unusual for stocks to trade flat as Wall Street heads off on its summer vacation, but other factors have also driven the lull in equity markets.
After powering the "Magnificent Seven" group of mega-cap tech stocks to massive gains over the first half of the year, the hype for artificial intelligence appears to have fizzled out.
Even 2023's biggest winner Nvidia has barely felt the benefit of that investing theme this summer, with its shares up just 8% since the start of July despite the chipmaker smashing analysts' expectations with a stellar third-quarter earnings report.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve policymakers have signaled the central bank is now close to calling time on its war on inflation, with a CME Group poll showing that most traders aren't expecting any further interest-rate hikes this year.
That's good news for stocks – when borrowing costs stop rising, equities become more appealing relative to other assets like bonds and cash – but it's also taken another source of volatility off the table, with what was once one of investors' biggest fears fading into a non-issue.
So these aren't bad times for investors – but they are boring ones.