Apple's market value just hit an astounding $3 trillion. Here are 4 key drivers of its historic rally this year.

• Apple shares rose 49% in the first half of 2023, their biggest six-month gain since 2009.
• The tech giant's market cap closed above $3 trillion for the first time ever on Friday.

Apple closed above a $3 trillion market capitalization for the first time ever Friday, thanks to a breakneck rally for its stock that few investors would have expected at the start of 2023.

Shares in the Cupertino-based company have jumped 49% year-to-date – racking up their biggest six-month gain since 2009, and erasing their dismal 25% plunge in 2022.

Here's what has – and hasn't – driven that surge.

The iPhone 15

Apple is set to release its long-awaited iPhone 15 in September – and growing excitement about the new device has helped to propel shares higher this year.

The product will launch at a time when around 250 million iPhones require an upgrade, and that could enable Apple to raise its average sales price by around $100, according to Wedbush's Dan Ives.

"Apple is playing chess while others play checkers," the analyst said in a research note published last month, upping his price target for the stock to $220 – 13% above the $194 it traded at as of Friday's close.

Vision Pro headset

Apple crossed the $3 trillion threshold just weeks after it announced its $3,499 mixed-reality headset, but the Vision Pro likely hasn't done much for the company's share price yet.

Apple said at its Worldwide Developers Conference in June that it expects to sell just 900,000 headsets in the first year, and has reportedly scaled back those targets since then.

When a company launches a new product, investors tend to focus on how it will impact earnings – and even if Apple hits its sales projections for the Vision Pro, it'll only make around $3 billion in 12 months.

That figure would be dwarfed by the revenue Apple earns from other tech like the Apple Watch, iPad, or iPhone – which brought in a staggering $200 billion last year.

"Safety play"

Apple also surged in the first six months of 2023 because investors expect it to deliver steady, market-beating returns in times of economic uncertainty.

The tech conglomerate's second-quarter earnings report, published May 4, showed its net sales fell year-on-year, and its earnings per share dropped compared to the preceding quarter, dragged down by lower iPad and Mac sales.

But Apple still appeals to investors as a so-called "safety play" with an economic slump likely looming, according to Short Hills Capital CIO Steve Weiss.

"The stock has not moved up in the fundamentals, it's moved up because it's safety … frankly, it just doesn't deserve the multiple that it has on the fundamental financial performance," he said last month.

Big Tech rally

Apple's surge has coincided with a massive rally for Big Tech. The elite group of stocks has surged higher thanks to expectations of interest-rate cuts and a massive explosion of interest in AI.

The Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign in June after 15 months of hikes. The decision fanned investors' hopes that the central bank would slash borrowing costs by the end of the year, boosting Apple and many other stocks.

But the tech giant has been much more cautious than its rivals when it comes to AI, with CEO Tim Cook barely mentioning that phrase and choosing instead to focus on the Vision Pro during his keynote speech at last month's WWDC.

AI has powered other "Magnificent Seven" stocks like Nvidia and Tesla to massive gains of their own this year – so the fact that Apple's stock price has also soared even though it's shying away from the new tech makes its stunning rally even more impressive.