2024 will be a perilous year for the world economy as geopolitical tensions ramp up, top economists warn

• Top economists are fretting about geopolitical tensions, according to a World Economic Forum survey.
• Over 80% of respondents said they're expecting heightened economic and stock-market volatility.

The year 2024 will likely be a stormy one for the global economy as growth slows and geopolitical tensions ramp up around the world, according to a World Economic Forum survey.

The foundation polled over 60 chief economists ahead of its annual meeting, which is taking place in the Swiss ski resort town of Davos this week.

More than half the respondents said the world economy will get weaker this year, and 70% predicted looser financial conditions – implying that they believe central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will start lowering interest rates at some point in 2024.

Over 80% of the economists surveyed by the WEF expect geopolitical tensions to drive up stock-market volatility and economic uncertainty, while around three-quarters of those polled said they're expecting artificial intelligence to boost innovation in advanced economies this year.

"Amid accelerating divergence, the resilience of the global economy will continue to be tested in the year ahead," WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi said. "Though global inflation is easing, growth is stalling, financial conditions remain tight, global tensions are deepening and inequalities are rising."

Wall Street executives have been fretting about heightened geopolitical volatility since war broke out in the Middle East in October, although those worries didn't stop stocks from charging higher over the final two months of 2023.

JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon said in an interview with the UK's Sunday Times in November that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Israel's war with Hamas could spark the most serious global crisis "since 1938", while billionaire Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has repeatedly warned of a potential war involving the US and China.

Despite their gloomy outlooks, the Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX index – a widely-followed Wall Street "fear gauge" – is trading close to its lowest level since before the pandemic, suggesting that traders aren't so worried.