Xi faces being humiliated by his 'no limits' friendship with Putin. But he can't back out of it now.

• China's Xi Jinping has formed close ties with Vladimir Putin's regime in Russia.
• He sees fellow authoritarian Putin as an ally in the bid to roll back US global power.

China's President Xi Jinping and Russia's President Vladimir Putin have portrayed their relatonship as an enduring alliance, based on the autocrats' shared ambition to reshape the world and roll back the US' global influence.

But the chaos that engulfed Russia last weekend when Wagner mercenaries turned against the Kremlin has put that alliance to the test, and raised serious doubts about Xi's "no limits' friendship with Putin.

In backing Putin in his war in Ukraine, Xi has exposed China to potentially severe damage if Ukraine's European allies decide to cut off their economic ties with China, or if chaos in Russia threatens China's trade ties with the country.

If Russia loses against Ukraine, Xi would face global humiliation. However, he has too much to lose if he backs out of the alliance now.

Graeme Thompson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Insider that Xi appeared to have underestimated the damage the Ukraine war would inflict on Putin's authority.

"It's hard to believe that either man anticipated the grinding war of attrition that has resulted, and historically problems on the battlefield tend to undermine political stability in authoritarian states, which are often more brittle than they appear," he remarked.

China's leaders have long drawn lessons from their fellow authoritarians in Moscow — both positive and negative.

Xi is likely following developments in Ukraine closely in deciding how to pursue China's long-term ambition of regaining control of Taiwan, another source of long-term tensions with the US, said Thompson.

"Not only did Xi likely overestimate the capacity and stability of Putin's regime, but recent events underscore the political risks to authoritarians that get bogged down in costly military interventions – a lesson Xi is unlikely to ignore in his own thinking about Taiwan," he said.

Xi has too much to lose to abandon Putin

But despite the chaos in Russia having disturbed officials in Beijing, according to Reuters, publicly China has sought to downplay the crisis.

"This is Russia's internal affair," said a Chinese foreign ministry's spokesperson in a statement after the rebellion, emphasising the long-term strategic alliance of the states.

Jonathan Ward, CEO of the Atlas Group, told Insider that Xi's partnership with Putin was so central to China's global strategic ambitions that it was impossible for him to contemplate abandoning it.

"The Wagner march towards Moscow may raise concerns in Beijing about Putin's stability and grasp on power, but it is unlikely to diminish the importance that Xi places on partnership with Russia in his long-term and deep-seated strategy of confrontation with the West – a strategy in which Putin's Russia is far and away his most significant partner," he said.

"Xi's own relationship with Vladimir Putin is one in which he has arguably invested more personal diplomatic capital than any other in the world and the two dictators have articulated a shared vision of world affairs. This investment of personal political capital and broader strategic effort is too substantial to be easily abandoned or lost."

If there are further signs Putin's grip on power is weakening, and chaos could engulf Russia, Xi faces a tough choice.

If he decides to step in and try and prop up the ailing regime in the Kremlin, he risks Western nations severing economic ties with China, and badly damaging China's already faltering post-COVID recovery.

But Ward believes Putin is so important to Xi's global strategic ambitions he would likely take the hit.

"If further signs of instability take place in Russia, it is likely that Xi would do what he can to help stabilize the regime, assist Putin, and keep him in power," said Ward.

But Thompson pointed to the fact that Xi already appeared to be unwilling to offer Putin his unconditional support in the form of weapons and other military hardware to back the Ukraine invasion.

China has also seemed reluctant to finalise a gas pipeline deal that would offer the Kremlin an economic lifeline amid Western sanctions, and according to some experts may even be casting round for a potential successor to Putin.

"It's unlikely that Xi will go out of his way to support Putin's regime if that entails significant risks to China itself. Ultimately, Xi is going to do what's best for Beijing, regardless of events in Moscow," he said.